June 2, 2009

US soy planting as of Sunday (May 31) had approached last year's pace but still lagged average, while the corn crop was almost completely in the ground, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday in its weekly crop progress report.

 

Farmers, meanwhile, continued to struggle to seed spring wheat as May came to an end with 11 percent of the crop still unplanted. US winter wheat ratings slipped slightly as harvest rolled forward in southern areas.

 

Soy planting was 66 percent complete as of Sunday, compared to 67 percent last year and the average of 79 percent, the USDA said. That was toward the low end of trade expectations, which ranged from 65 percent to 75 percent. A week ago, 48 percent of the crop was planted.

 

Traders likely thought Illinois and Indiana, two key soy-growing states, would be further along with planting, said Mike Zuzolo, analyst for Risk Management Commodities. Still, Zuzolo said he wouldn't call the data "positive" for Chicago Board of Trade soy futures because the total planting number was so close to last year.

 

Wet weather in states like Illinois and Indiana has slowed planting progress this season. Illinois was 34 percent planted, compared to 54 percent last year and the average of 82 percent, while Indiana was 50 percent planted, compared to 58 percent last year and the average of 78 percent, the USDA said.

 

Iowa was much farther along due to drier weather. The crop was 91 percent in the ground, up from 81 percent last year and the average of 90 percent.

 

Overall, the crop was 36 percent emerged, compared to 30 percent last year and the average of 51 percent, according to the USDA. A week ago, 17 percent of soy had emerged.

 

It was surprising that emergence was higher than last year, Zuzolo said. That may encourage some ideas that the crop can still catch up after delays in wetter states, he said.

 

Iowa's crop was 59 percent emerged, compared to 33 percent last year and the average of 60 percent. In Illinois, emergence was 6 percent, compared to 18 percent last year and the average of 60 percent.

 

Corn planting was 93 percent complete as of Sunday, down from 94 percent last year and the average of 97 percent, the USDA said. The planting progress was within trade estimates, which ranged from 90 percent to 95 percent complete. A week ago, 82 percent of the crop was planted.

 

The crop was 73 percent emerged, up from 71 percent last year but down from the average of 86 percent. A week ago, 52 percent had emerged.

 

Overall, the report was "neutral to slightly negative" for CBOT corn futures, Zuzolo said. Traders are "probably going to say we are within last year's pace with both planting and emergence," he said.

 

In Iowa, 99 percent of the crop was planted, up from 96 percent last year and on par with the five-year average. Ninety percent of the state's crop was emerged, up from 74 percent last year and on par with the five-year average.

 

In Illinois, 82 percent of the crop was planted, compared to 91 percent last year and the average of 98 percent. The crop was 52 percent emerged, down from 74 percent last year and the average of 92 percent.

 

In its first crop condition rating of the year, the USDA said 70 percent of US corn is in good-to-excellent shape. That was toward the high end of trade expectations. A year ago, 63 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent.

 

Traders may be cautious with emergence data and condition ratings until they know more about how wet weather will impact harvest acres and yield, Zuzolo said. Some fields had areas that were drowned out, he said.

 

US spring wheat was 89 percent planted as of Sunday, down from 100 percent last year and the average of 98 percent, the USDA said. A week ago, planting was 79 percent complete. Traders had estimated planting would be at least 90 percent complete.

 

The crop was 67 percent emerged, down from 91 percent last year and the average of 90 percent. A week ago, 45 percent of the crop had emerged.

 

In North Dakota, the biggest spring wheat-growing state, planting was 82 percent complete, down from 100 percent last year and the average of 97 percent, according to the USDA. The crop was 52 percent emerged, compared to 92 percent last year and the average of 89 percent.

 

Overall, the crop was rated 73 percent good to excellent, up from 57 percent last year, according to the USDA. North Dakota's crop was rated 75 percent good to excellent.

 

Winter wheat was 77 percent headed as of Sunday, compared to 73 percent last year and the average of 81 percent. A week ago, 67 percent of the crop was headed.

 

The USDA rated 45 percent of the crop as good to excellent, down two percentage points from last week. The condition rating was expected to slip a bit, an analyst said.

 

In Kansas, the top hard red winter wheat-growing state, 46 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, down one percentage point from the previous week, according to the USDA. HRW wheat is used to make bread.

 

Ohio's soft red winter wheat crop was rated 76 percent good to excellent, up three percentage points from last week, the USDA said. SRW wheat is used to make pastries and snack foods.

 

In Illinois, SRW wheat was rated 56 percent good to excellent, down 11 percentage points from last week. The sharp drop is likely due in part to fungal disease, an analyst said. Fusarium head blight, or head scab, has been reported in SRW wheat states due to wet weather at flowering time.

 

Neighboring Missouri saw its good-to-excellent rating fall nine percentage points to 48 percent. However, Indiana's wheat was rated 76 percent good to excellent, down just one percentage point from the previous week.