June 1, 2010

US winter wheat crop faces wet weather threat

 

This is the second year in a row that winter-wheat farmers face a disappointing harvest due to smaller planted area and production problems. Another poor-quality crop could weigh on futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade, where soft red winter wheat is traded, and the Kansas City Board of Trade, where hard red winter wheat is traded, if farmers are forced to sell wheat as animal feed rather than for human consumption.

On Friday (May 28), soft red winter wheat for July delivery ended down 10 cents, or 2.1%, at US$4.5775 a bushel at the CBOT, while hard red winter wheat for July delivery at the KCBT settled 11.25 cents, or 2.3%, lower at US$4.8150. CBOT winter wheat is down more that 15% so far this year, while Kansas City winter wheat is down 10% so far this year.

Growers are worried again about the risk of head scab and stripe rust, two fungal diseases that reduce quality and yields, because of rain during an important springtime stage of development. Wet weather that delayed planting last year prevented plants from establishing themselves well.

In Ohio, the top soft red winter wheat-producing state, the risk of scab is moderate due to rains during flowering, said Pierce Paul, extension plant pathologist at Ohio State University. The USDA in March estimated Ohio farmers had planted 800,000 acres of soft red winter wheat for the 2010-11 crop, out of a national total of about six million.

Recent wetness was unfavourable for Missouri's crop, which worsened the situation, adding on to the already late planting last autumn, said Bill Wiebold, extension specialist at the University of Missouri. The USDA estimates producers planted 390,000 acres for the 2010-11 crop, but farmers likely have destroyed at least 25% of those acres because they did not have good production potential, he said.

In the Plains, stripe rust has been plaguing hard red winter wheat fields, particularly in Texas where infections were described by experts as reaching extraordinarily high levels. The disease, which is spread by wind, is now being reported in Kansas and Nebraska. Stripe rust saps plants of energy, lowering yields and quality by withering kernels.

Unfortunately, the persistently wet weather that has allowed the fungal disease to flourish also has prevented farmers from being able to treat their wheat fields with fungicides. Now with harvest just a few weeks away in some locations, it may be too late for farmers to apply chemicals to fend off further yield loss.

Farmers were hoping to produce a good-quality crop this year so they could blend it with poor-quality wheat left over from last year. The quality of this year's crop will be evaluated as the grain is harvested, which will continue through the summer, depending on location.

Nationwide, US farmers planned to sow 37.7 million acres of all varieties of winter wheat in the 2010 season, down 13% from last season, the USDA reported in March. The government will issue an updated acreage estimate on June 30.