May 30, 2008

 

US agricultural product exports in 2008 to be up 32 percent from 2007
 
 

The value of US agricultural product export is expected to be up 32 percent from 2007 thanks to higher grain and meat prices according to  USDA's "Outlook for US Agricultural Trade" released   May 29, 2008.

 

Fiscal 2008 agricultural exports are forecast at US$108.5 billion, up US$26.6 billion from 2007.

 

Grains and animal products account for two-thirds of the increase from February's estimates.

 

Slower-than-expected South American exports have extended the season for US soy shipments longer than expected, the report noted.

 

Compared with the prior forecast, the economic environment is now perceived to be slightly less positive to US farm exports as the rest of the world's growth weakens modestly from prior expectation and the US dollar is weaker in most major markets.

 

Wheat export value to hit new records
 

Fiscal 2008 grain and feed exports are increased US$2.6 billion from the February forecast to a record US$35.3 billion, thanks to higher per unit prices for wheat, rise and coarse grains and increased shipments of corn and DDGS.

 

The USDA also trimmed wheat export volumes from its February estimates as competition from wheat exporters in Europe and the Black Sea regions near the end of the year is expected to have an impact on US wheat exports.

 

Even though wheat exports is expected to be 500,000 tonnes less than that estimated in February, at 30.5 million  tonnes, it would still be the highest in 15 years.

 

Despite the lower volumes, higher wheat prices would bring wheat export value to a record US$10.5 billion.
 

Corn export value to record US$12.9 billion
 

The report also raised its February corn export estimates one-million ton upward to a record 63 million tonnes with value also hitting a record US$12.9 billion.

 

The strong exports were due to the fact that competitors China and Argentina would both be largely absent from the market. China, a former exporter, has restricted corn exports due to rising inflation and demand at home while farm strikes and uncertainty in Argentina is expected to slow exports.

 

With smaller stocks and a potentially smaller crop ( due to late planting and diversion of supplies to ethanol) prices are set to be high in view of tight supplies. 
 

Increased soy shipements provides major push for oilseed sales
 

The fiscal 2008 export forecast for oilseeds and products is $20.7 billion, up $1.8 billion from the February forecast.

 

This increase is largely due to increased soy sales into the second half of the US marketing year stemming from slower Argentine soy exports and the appreciation of the Brazilian dollar, which made Brazilian soy less competitive.

 

Demand for US soy is expected to be higher towards the end of the year, when prices would be higher too.

 

Soyoil volume is raised and is now forecast at 1.3 million tons with strong sales to Mexico, Latin America, and North Africa.

 

Soymeal volume is increased from February estimates as well based on strong sales to Asia and the Caribbean.
 

Meat and dairy exports up 13.8 percent from February estimates
 

Exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products are forecast at US$20.5 billion in fiscal 2008, up US$2.5 billion from the February forecast.

 

The higher estimates were largely based on an expectation that dairy exports would reach a record US$3.7 billion.

 

Dairy prices remain higher and demand is stronger than expected due to prolonged drought in Australia and New Zealand, keeping global supplies tight and prices high.

 

Cheese, whey, and butter fat collectively account for another quarter of US sales with strong demand from many countries.

 

Pork sets new export volume and value records
 

Pork exports are raised about US$475 million from the February forecast due to increased sales to China as demand rises in the country amid reduced domestic supplies caused by February's winter storms and the recent earthquakes in Sichuan.