May 29, 2012

Russia's grain yield estimates fall on dry weather

In the coming 2012-13 season, the farmers of Russia will gather 93.2 million tonnes of grain, less than previously estimated, due to dry weather, according to OOO ProZerno.

The prior forecast made last month was for a 95.5-million-tonne crop, Vladimir Petrichenko, director of the Moscow-based consultancy, said by phone. ProZerno cut its estimate for the wheat harvest by 4.1% to 54.2 million tonnes and reduced its barley-crop forecast by 2.3% to 16.8 million tonnes, he said.

Crops in southern Russia have been damaged by a month of dryness, helping wheat prices to jump 16% last week in Chicago trading. ProZerno's latest forecasts account for the positive effect of rains that began to fall in the country's south this week, according to Petrichenko.

"The main reason for the lower estimates is unfavourable weather conditions for grains' development in the south and some parts of the Black Earth and Volga areas," he said.

Development of plantings this month is above average and improved from April in the western part of the Black Earth area, central Russia, the Ural region and parts of the Volga area, Petrichenko said.

Grain exports from Russia in the current season running through June will come to about 25.5 million tonnes by the end of this month, with another one million to 1.2 million tonnes to be shipped out next month, Petrichenko said. Exports may reach 27 million tonnes for the season when shipments of peas are included, he said.

ProZerno will be able to make an estimate for exports in the coming season after the state statistics service releases figures this month on national carryover stocks, Petrichenko said.