May 28, 2012

 

China's 2012-13 corn imports may jump 75% 

 

 

In the marketing year that starts on July 1, the corn imports of China may soar 75% to nearly seven million tonnes, the International Grains Council (IGC) said Friday (May 25).

 

The IGC kept China's corn import estimate unchanged for 2011-12 at four million tonnes but raised its forecast for 2012-13 from six million tonnes to seven million tonnes.

 

The IGC also raised its forecast for China's 2012-13 wheat imports by 20% to 1.8 million tonnes, although it remains lower than the 2.8 million tonnes it estimated for the year ending June 30.

 

China's imports of non-rice grains in 2012-13 will exceed 10 million tonnes, a key psychological level, IGC projected.

 

China was a net exporter of corn until 2009 but its burgeoning demand has put additional pressure on global supply at a time when a major volume is used to manufacture ethanol, particularly in the US, the world's largest corn exporter.

 

China's corn supplies appear to have tightened and, with near-record domestic prices boosting the price competitiveness of imports into southern China, Sinograin and private feedmills have bought large volumes of US corn recently, IGC said.

 

The expansion of the industrial use of corn in China is expected to remain strong, due to solid demand for starch sweeteners and "baiju," a distilled alcoholic beverage, it said.

 

China's use of corn in the year starting October 1 for industrial purposes is forecast to rise 6% to 53 million tonnes, while its use of corn for animal feed is forecast to rise 2% to 129 million tonnes.

 

Its stocks on October 1 are forecast at 57.4 million tonnes, up 6.7% on-year.

 

Due to higher demand, imports are rising despite strong domestic output and stock levels.

 

IGC said abundant soil moisture helped crop development in southern China, while warmer weather with showers helped planting in northeastern regions.

 

Due to high corn prices, farmers are switching from cotton and soy and China's corn acreage is forecast to increase by one million hectares to 34.4 million hectares, IGC said.

 

Assuming yields at a five-year average of 5.5 tonnes/hectare, production is forecast around 189 million tonnes, up three million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 186 million tonnes but still 1.5% lower on-year.

 

Warm conditions with scattered rains benefited spring wheat development in northeast China. The total wheat area is projected to be little changed on-year at 24.3 million hectares in 2012-13, including 22.7 million hectares sown to winter varieties.

 

Based on average yields, wheat production is forecast at 116 million tonnes in 2012-13, almost unchanged from 117.9 million tonnes a year earlier.