May 28, 2012

UK beef and veal production is expected to decline in 2012 and 2013, with a decrease of 4% on-year, to 902,000 tonnes, back from 935,000 tonnes in 2011.
 
The decline in beef and veal production for 2012 is largely a result of the reduction in calves born during 2010, with the subsequent decreased availability of prime cattle for slaughter in the following years (EBLEX). The decline in the national herd is also expected to reduce the number of bulls and cows available for slaughter. The UK cattle herd totalled 9.68 million head in 2011, a 2% decrease from 2010. Beef and veal production in the first three months of 2012 was 8% lower on-year, totalling 223,000 tonnes, reflecting the decreased availability of cattle.
 
The forecast increase in sheepmeat production is a result of the increase in the national sheep flock, with producers responding to improved prices in recent years and retaining lambs to increase flocks. The lambing rate for 2012 is also predicted to be above 2011 levels, as mild conditions and good feed availability contribute to improved survival rates. The AHDB is predicting that with the larger flock, and improved lambing percentages, the UK lamb crop for 2012 will be the largest since 2008.
 
While UK lamb production decreased in the first quarter of 2012, back 2% on-year to 62,600 tonnes, it is expected to increase throughout the second half of 2012.