May 28, 2008

Climate change to challenge future US crop output

Grain, oilseed and cattle production in the US is going to suffer in the decades to come thanks to the growing volatility of weather in an increasingly warmer earth, according to a government report on climate change released Tuesday (May 27, 2008) by the USDA.

"With increased carbon dioxide and temperature, the life cycle of grain and oilseed crops will likely progress more rapidly," according the report.

However, as temperature rises, these crops will increasingly begin to experience failure, especially if climate variability increases and precipitation lessens or becomes more variable, the report said.

Jerry Hatfield, a scientist at USDA's Agriculture Research Service and one of the report's authors, said that over the next 30 years there will likely be more and more "extreme temperature events" in the US and, as a result, corn yields would drop 4 percent-5 percent.

That, he said, does not take into account farmers and seed producers improving planting technology and techniques.

The hotter it gets, Hatfield said, the faster plants grow. And that will stunt the growth of crops like corn.

In the case of livestock, it will be cattle that are the most exposed to risk from global climate change, according to the report: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity. 

Hatfield said higher temperatures are not conducive to weight gain or milk production. Furthermore, it will become harder and harder to feed cattle as forage conditions decline and more and more acreage is needed by ranchers.