May 28, 2008

US poultry production seen as sluggish in 2009, robust exports in Q1 2008

   
  
US poultry production in 2009 is expected to be sluggish while the first quarter of 2008 has witnessed robust poultry exports, according to the USDA Livestock, Poultry and Dairy Outlook released May 16, 2008.

US broiler meat production is expected to total about 37.2 billion pounds in 2009, up 0.8 percent from the previous year after an expected increase of 2 percent in 2008, the report said.

USDA projected that broiler production would be held down by high feed prices and rising energy costs, with lower production in the first half of 2009. However, the agency also expects a slight increase in production in the second half due to rising prices for broiler products.

The report said broiler price increases would be tempered by a sluggish domestic economy, with reduced discretionary income due to increases in food costs and higher energy prices.

Other chicken meat production is expected to reach 525 million pounds in 2009, nearly 1-percent down from 2008 due to the influence of decreased broiler production in the second half of 2008 and first half of 2009, the report said.

Table-egg production is expected to total 6.4-billion dozen in 2009, down slightly from 2008, due to declines in the number of hens in table-egg laying flocks, according to the report.

USDA expects hatching-egg production to be just over 1.12 billion eggs in 2009, a small increase from the 1.12 billion eggs forecast in 2008. The increase will be due to higher output in the second half of the year as broiler production begins to increase on a year-on-year basis.

Turkey production for 2009 is also expected to fall to 6.1 billion pounds from a forecast 6.2 billion pounds in 2008. Surging feed costs, rising energy prices as well as a slightly lower number of slaughter are projected to be the cause of the decline, the report said.

Robust poultry exports in first quarter of 2008

Meanwhile, US poultry exports have done well in the first quarter of 2008, with broiler shipments in the first quarter totalled 1.5 billion pounds, up 18 percent from the corresponding period in 2007. The weak US dollar and a rise in consumers' purchasing power in some broiler-importing countries are the main reasons for the result, according to the report.

The report also said most of the increase recorded in the first quarter was due to a growth in exporting markets such as Russia, China and Mexico. The Russian market has expanded 36 percent, Chinese market 28 percent and Mexican market by 27 percent.

Total broiler shipments are expected to increase throughout the second and third quarters. Broiler export volume for 2009 is forecast at 6.1 billion pounds, up nearly 2 percent from 2008, the report said.

Total turkey exports for the first quarter reached 148 million pounds, up 19 percent on-year, due to strong demand and the weak dollar, the report said.

According to the report, turkey exports to Russia jumped by nearly 187 percent while shipments to China surged 78 percent in the first quarter. Mexico is still the largest importer of US turkey meat, but its turkey imports had declined slightly (by less than 1 percent) on-year.

Turkey shipments for 2009 are projected at 635 million pounds, 5 percent higher than shipments in 2008, the report said.