May 28, 2008
US corn and soy planting still below average, emergence issue crops up
Seeding and development of the US corn crop continued to remain below average in the week ended Sunday (May 25, 2008), with moderate progress made in some of the top producing states compared to the previous week, according to the weekly progress report issued Tuesday by the USDA.
Soy planting similarly lagged behind average while emergence rates paled in comparison to the five-year average, according to the USDA report. The good-to-excellent condition rating for winter wheat rose compared to the previous week while the spring wheat emergence fell below average.
Top producing corn and soy states are still concentrating on getting corn in the ground at the soy's expense while dealing with an unseasonably cool spring, said Karlin.
Farmers plant corn first to avoid having the crop pollinate during the hottest time of the summer and to avoid any early frost damage in the fall.
Corn
The USDA said 88 percent of the US corn crop was seeded as of Sunday, up from 73 percent the previous week but below the five-year average of 94 percent.
"There is 10 million intended acres that still need to get in the ground," said Karlin.
In Illinois, 87 percent of the crop was planted, up from 75 percent the previous week but down from the average of 97 percent, according to the USDA.
Indiana's crop was 77 percent planted, up from 68 percent the previous week but down from the average of 89 percent, the USDA reported. Iowa made significant gains compared to the past week but still remains behind schedule. In Iowa, the biggest corn-producing state, 93 percent of the crop was planted, up from 78 percent the previous week but down from the average of 97 percent.
"The state of Missouri is the farthest behind," said Karlin. "They really should be done by now and less than three-quarters of the crop is in the ground."
In Missouri, 72 percent of the crop was planted, up from 55 percent the previous week but down from the average of 96 percent.
The overall pace of progress was still within trade expectations. Traders were expecting anywhere from 80 percent to 90 percent of the crop to be planted nationwide.
"The market will ask how much of the crop has to be replanted," said Karlin, adding that the emphasis will switch from planting to emergence.
The USDA said 52 percent of the US crop was emerged, up from 26 percent last week but down from the average of 76 percent.
"This is the second-lowest rate of emergence as of May 25 since 2002," said Karlin. "The cool spring is taking its toll."
In Illinois, 62 percent of the corn crop emerged, up from 34 percent last week but down from the average of 90 percent.
In Missouri, 41 percent of the corn crop emerged, up from 27 percent the previous week but down from the average of 87 percent.
Soy
The USDA said 52 percent of the US soybean crop was planted, up from 27 percent last week and down from the average of 67 percent. Traders had expected 50 percent to 60 percent of the crop to be planted.
"Certain states were able to make some pretty decent progress, but they're trying to concentrate on getting corn in the ground," said Karlin, who singled out Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Iowa.
Illinois continued to lag as 39 percent of its crop was planted, compared to the average of 75 percent. In Indiana, 38 percent of the crop was planted, up from 23 percent the previous week but down from the average of 67 percent.
"This is also a function of the cool conditions we've had in the Midwest," said Karlin.
The market, however, will remain neutral for now, he said.
Emergence rates for the US crop were also well below average. The USDA said 12 percent of the crop emerged compared to the average of 34 percent.
Spring Wheat
The US spring wheat crop was 76 percent emerged, up from 54 percent the previous week and down from the average of 78 percent.
Minnesota stood out as one of the few states well behind average. The crop was 71 percent emerged, up from 39 percent last week but down from the average of 81 percent.
