May 27, 2011
French wheat production is affected by drought
The estimate of drought destruction to the France’s soft wheat crop has increased to more than 10% this year and more losses would occur if rains fall as grains enter the last stage of development, according to France's Arvalis on Thursday (May 26).
Early last week, French grains technical institute Arvalis said the crop would shed far more than 5%, declining to give a more precise range.
"As time goes by and there is no rain, the percentage tends to rise," an engineer at the grain technical institute said.
Arvalis does not give detailed crop forecasts but its outlook is close to that of French analyst Agritel, which last week estimated the 2011 soft wheat crop would fall 11.5% on last year to 31.7 million tonnes.
The engineer said the worst case scenario for France's wheat crop now would be another two weeks of drought followed by three weeks of rain.
"It would be the worst scenario because it would round off the damage to the wheat's yield potential and be a problem for the harvesting and quality of the crop," he said.
Several months of drier-than-usual weather have parched farmland and cut water reserves in the EU largest grain producer, fuelling concern for the final harvests.
And weather forecasts show virtually no rain in France for at least the coming 10 days.
"There are many regions where we are coming to stages where there is no rain forecast for the time being and even if it rains beyond available weather forecasts, there is little chance that it will have a favourable impact on yields," he said.
The engineer stressed that the situation differed widely between regions, with irreversible damage in the southern regions where the soil is thinner and where high temperatures led to heat stress, and the northern grain belt with deep soil or where some fields are irrigated.
"In some fields the situation is not catastrophic. In irrigated fields, yield potential is not dented, rather the opposite," he said.
Estimates for the EU wheat harvest are shrinking by the day as plants wilt in a months-long drought that looks set to continue.
The French drought and weather worries in key producing countries, including the US, pushed benchmark November <BL2X1> on Euronext milling wheat futures up over 3% on Thursday (May 26) to a new contract high of EUR253.25 (US$360.36).
The engineer said the drought was different from the one experienced in 1976, which ravaged the country's crops, notably because the crops were 10-15 days more advanced this year.
"We tend to think that it is not as bad as in 1976," he said, noting that the early growth had allowed plants to develop yields before water exhaustion and that it could limit the damage, provided it does not rain.
"It is a bit of a race against the clock when we are in a situation of increasing stress so sometimes you may be better off being early," he said.
