May 27, 2008
ASA weekly: US soy complex dips on oil futures decline
The US soy complex closed lower on May 22 on setback in crude oil futures.
The industry also fears a possible government intervention to limit the role of institutional investment in commodities.
US soy product futures were lower along with soy futures, putting soy oil futures below their breakeven level for use in biodiesel as heating oil futures closed higher despite the setback in crude oil.
July soy futures closed down US$8.91, finishing at US$486.76; August lost US$8.91, closing at US$488.04; and September was down US$10.38, ending at US$486.57.
July soymeal decreased US$4.96 closing at US$361.55; August was US$4.63 lower, finishing at US$364.09; and September soymeal closed down US$4.30, ending at US$364.09.
July soy oil decreased US$31.31 to finish at US$1363.10; August was down US$31.53, closing at US$1370.16; and September was US$31.08 lower, closing at US$1377.65.
UN expects edible oil prices to remain high in 2008
International prices of edible oils are expected to remain at around their current high levels this year despite higher output in key producing countries, according to a senior UN official.
Peter Thoenes, an oil crop specialist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said that in the last two years, vegetable oil stocks were down to levels that require a considerable rise on production to boost supplies.
Thoenes pointed out that South America and the US are likely to produce more soy and soy oil in 2008 and Southeast Asia to produce more palm oil, mainly due to more favourable weather.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
6,960 |
12,229 |
15,617 |
174 |
334 |
185 |
1,638 |
2,252 |
3,851 |
|
Production |
83,368 |
86,770 |
70,358 |
40,500 |
48,800 |
47,000 |
57,000 |
59,000 |
61,000 |
|
Imports |
92 |
246 |
163 |
1,013 |
2,359 |
2,600 |
40 |
108 |
130 |
|
Crush |
47,324 |
49,160 |
49,941 |
32,748 |
37,600 |
38,100 |
28,756 |
30,770 |
31,800 |
|
Exports |
25,579 |
30,428 |
27,896 |
7,130 |
12,208 |
10,000 |
24,770 |
23,805 |
27,900 |
|
Other |
5,288 |
4,040 |
4,495 |
1,475 |
1,500 |
1,525 |
2,900 |
2,934 |
2,950 |
|
Usage |
78,191 |
83,628 |
82,332 |
41,353 |
51,308 |
49,625 |
56,426 |
57,509 |
62,650 |
|
Carryout |
12,229 |
15,617 |
3,806 |
334 |
185 |
160 |
2,252 |
3,851 |
2,331 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
156 |
285 |
318 |
1,686 |
2,003 |
2,076 |
636 |
863 |
1,013 |
|
Production |
37,416 |
39,033 |
39,720 |
25,582 |
29,153 |
29,550 |
22,300 |
23,850 |
24,615 |
|
Domestic use |
30,114 |
31,171 |
32,024 |
574 |
620 |
645 |
10,000 |
11,500 |
12,000 |
|
Net Exports |
7,173 |
7,829 |
7,743 |
24,691 |
28,460 |
29,164 |
12,073 |
12,200 |
12,713 |
|
Usage |
37,287 |
39,000 |
39,767 |
25,265 |
29,080 |
29,809 |
22,073 |
23,700 |
24,713 |
|
Carryout |
285 |
318 |
271 |
2,003 |
2,076 |
1,817 |
863 |
1,013 |
915 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
771 |
1,366 |
1,317 |
385 |
487 |
350 |
248 |
300 |
301 |
|
Production |
9,248 |
9,292 |
9,614 |
6,169 |
7,200 |
7,320 |
5,521 |
5,910 |
6,105 |
|
Domestic use |
8,146 |
8,502 |
8,573 |
402 |
597 |
1,135 |
3,172 |
3,450 |
3,640 |
|
Net exports |
507 |
839 |
1,071 |
5,665 |
6,740 |
6,160 |
2,297 |
2,459 |
2,450 |
|
Usage |
8,653 |
9,341 |
9,644 |
6,067 |
7,337 |
7,295 |
5,469 |
5,909 |
6,090 |
|
Carryout |
1,366 |
1,317 |
1,287 |
487 |
350 |
375 |
300 |
301 |
316 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 15 May 2008 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
|
Soybeans |
1.50 |
123.30 |
|
|
Soymeal |
0.90 |
96.00 |
|
|
Soybeans |
194.10 |
1427.30 |
|
|
Soymeal |
12.10 |
407.40 |
|
|
Soybeans |
3.50 |
184.40 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.80 |
0.80 |
|
|
Soybeans |
11.90 |
867.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
5.00 |
218.60 |
|
|
Soybeans |
101.70 |
2088.90 |
|
|
Soyoil |
0.50 |
43.90 |
|
|
Soybeans |
2.00 |
63.30 |
|
|
Soyoil |
5.00 |
5.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
5.50 |
2625.50 |
|
|
Soyoil |
5.90 |
89.40 |
|
|
Soybeans |
5.30 |
1427.30 |
|
|
Soyoil |
20.00 |
84.50 |
|
|
Soymeal |
67.40 |
857.30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soymeal |
1.50 |
254.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
1.00 |
254.10 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
|
Soymeal |
2.50 |
6.30 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
|
Soymeal |
21.00 |
28.80 |
|
Soybeans |
3,714.20 |
25,755.90 |
382.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.90 |
68.70 |
|
Soymeal |
1,325.20 |
5,010.80 |
151.50 |
|
|
Soymeal |
34.00 |
758.10 |
|
Soyoil |
148.80 |
857.00 |
46.40 |
