May 27, 2005

Lower US wheat exports in 2005-06 expected by USDA

The US Department of Agriculture's US wheat outlook for 2005-06 is for a moderate increase in production, a decline in exports, and a rise in stocks.

The USDA have said the estimates were highly tentative as spring planting was still ongoing in the Northern Hemisphere and remained several months away in the Southern Hemisphere.

Total US wheat production will increase by 1 percent from last year, to 2.185 billion bushels (59.5 million tonnes), according to the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates by the USDA.

The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production increased by 6 percent due to reduced abandonment and higher yields.

Spring and durum production is forecast to decline based on trend yields and the most recent 10-year average of harvested-to-planted ratios.

Total wheat supplies increased by only 2 percent, reflecting smaller beginning stocks.

Meanwhile, US wheat use is projected to decrease by 5 percent in 2005-06 because of smaller exports and feed and residual use, according to the USDA.

Food use is unchanged.

Projected exports of 950 million bushels [25.9 million tonnes] have decreased by 100 million bushels [2.7 million tonnes] because of larger exportable supplies in the EU-25, Ukraine, and Russia.

US ending stocks have increased by 137 million bushels [3.7 million tonnes] and are the largest since 2001-02.