May 27, 2004

 

 

US Summer Weather Seen Threatening For Corn; Favorable For Soybeans

 

Long-term forecasts indicate that heat stress is highly probable for U.S. corn areas during the key pollination period in June and July, but cooler temperatures and increased precipitation should benefit the U.S. soybean crop in August, a meteorologist said Wednesday.

 

In a CROPCAST weather presentation at the Chicago Board of Trade, Lawrence Heitkemper, Earth Satellite vice president and weather director, warned recent industry crop concerns are not necessary. What truly determines a crop's yield is still over a month away. For corn this time period is from mid-June to mid- July, and for soybeans it is in August.

 

Heitkemper also pointed out that planting U.S. corn early, as seen this season, has shown no past correlation to the final yields.

 

"Often plantings are early because conditions are dry," he said.

 

The meteorologist pointed to the 1980 U.S. corn crop as an example. He reminded that the 1980 crop benefited from favorable growing weather early to produce huge corn plants, but because of a hot and dry pollination period few corn ears were produced.

 

Thus, Heitkemper is concerned with weather models that indicate that a spike in heat and limited rainfall could be the case for the 2004 U.S. corn crop during pollination in portions of the eastern and southern Midwest. This includes the key corn producing states of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.

 

He also said that his models figure 92% of the crop is determined by the weather through the pollination period, and only 8% during kernel filling.

 

But the heat and dryness are seen abating going into August, just in time to create favorable weather for the U.S. soybean crop during podding, Heitkemper said. This suggests an above-average outlook for 2004 soybean yields.

 

In wheat, he looks for below-average wheat yields following this year's dryness in the western Plains.

 

Heitkemper also gave a brief analysis of foreign crop yields, focusing on below-trendline potential for corn crops in eastern Europe and western Former Soviet Union because of outlooks for increased heat this summer.

 

However, wheat output for those areas is seen closer to trendline, as that crop is expected to miss the high temperatures.

 

Overall favorable growing conditions are expected to be the case in the coming months in China and India.

 

Currently, the El Nino/La Nina conditions are in a neutral phase, Heitkemper said, but the chances for a return to El Nino conditions continue to be watched closely, especially as there is a pronounced correlation between El Nino and Australian wheat production. Australia's crop is down significantly in El Nino years, he said.