May 25, 2010

China soy imports seen more than 46 million tonnes

China, the largest soy consumer, may import more than a forecast 46 million tonnes of the oilseed this year on increased demand for vegetable oil and animal feed and amid plunging soyoil shipments.

According to analysts, the gain in China's meat consumption is closely related to its GDP growth, which is accelerating this year. Soyoil imports in 2009-2010 may tumble 40% to 1.5 million tonnes after the government banned shipments from Argentina, analysts said.

China buys more than half the world's soy exports and may become a net corn importer this year, as its 1.3 billion people increase meat consumption, supporting prices for bulk grain products. Better-than-expected demand spurred by China's double-digit economic growth and an embargo on soyoil from Argentina have helped imports rally, supporting gains in Chicago soy prices.

The USDA this month raised its China import estimate for the marketing year through September 30 to 46 million tonnes from 43.5 million tonnes in April, and predicted 49 million tonnes for 2010-2011.

Shipments in June may reach a record six million tonnes after exceeding five million tonnes in May. June's imports may jump partly due to delays to cargoes booked in previous months, analysts said.

Meanwhile, analysts believe that China's rising soy arrivals in the rest of the marketing year may cause an oversupply situation. Some companies, concerned about the surging imports, are thinking about delaying shipments or even cancelling some cargoes, analysts said.

China last month halted soyoil shipments from Argentina, the world's biggest supplier, as part of a widening trade dispute. The move was in response to Argentina's anti-dumping investigations on Chinese goods ranging from steel pipes to textiles, the state-backed China Chamber of Commerce of Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce & Animal By- Products said in March.