May 25, 2010

Grain regions in Southern Australia may receive below average rainfall from June to August, says the Bureau of Meteorology.

"The national outlook for total rainfall over winter shows a moderate to strong shift in odds favouring a drier-than-normal season over a broad band," according to a seasonal report of the bureau. Areas that may be affected by drier weather include Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.

Australian farmers planting crops including wheat and rapeseed need further rain after wet weather earlier this year boosted soil moisture in eastern states. Western Australia received much sufficient falls on the weekend.

"People are out planting and we are hopeful for some more rain," said Chris Sounness, acting grains programme manager at the Victorian Primary Industries Department in Horsham. The bureau's outlook, based on rainfall probabilities, was unlikely to change grower decisions.

The three-month seasonal outlook reflects the influence of temperature changes in the Indian and Pacific oceans on rain. For June to August, the link has been "moderately consistent" for much of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and the Northern Territory and generally "weakly consistent" elsewhere, the bureau said.

An El Nino climate event, which often brings dry weather to Eastern Australia, had ended and there was the possibility of a La Nina, which tends to bring more rainfall to the region, could develop in the late winter or spring. The Australian winter extends from the start of June to the end of August. Crops are harvested from October to January.

Wheat output in Australiamay be 21.8 million tonnes this harvest, Rabobank Groep NV forecast in a report this month. Rapeseed production may gain 19% to 2.3 million tonnes, the Australian Oilseeds Federation forecast May 20.