May 24, 2012

Brazil 2012/13 soy harvest could hit 73.6 million tonnes

Brazil's 2012/13 soy harvest is expected to reach 73.6 million tonnes, according to a Thomson Reuters survey of panellists at a Sao Paulo soy seminar on Tuesday (May 22).

If achieved, the number would mark a strong rebound from this year's drought-hit crop but fall shy of a record.

The Latin American country is the world's No. 2 producer of the protein-rich oilseed after the United States but output fell sharply in the now-ending 2011/12 harvest due to drought that extended into neighbouring No. 3 soy producer Argentina.

The 2012/13 crop will be sown later this year and harvested from January to around May of next year.

The government expects the current season to muster only 66.7 million tonnes of soy because of drought-related losses, down from the prior season's record 75.3 million tonnes.

Thomson Reuters conducted the survey of analysts and producers at the "Perspectives for Agribusiness in 2012/13" seminar hosted by the Sao Paulo commodities exchange BM&FBovespa and sponsored by Thomson Reuters and other companies.

The 183 respondents answering with a handheld keypad, said they expected soy exports in 2013 to reach 32.6 million tonnes on average. That would be similar to the 33 million tonnes shipped during the bumper 2010/11 season.

Lost output due to the drought has pushed up soy prices and made the grain more profitable to produce. Consultancy Agroconsult said at the event that soy area would likely rise 7% in the 2012/13 season as a result, at corn and cotton's expense.