May 24, 2012
The USDA expected an increase of US beef imports on-year through to the end of 2012, at 18% higher than 2011, at 1.1 million tonnes.
The USDA indicates the strong US demand for manufacturing beef, amid tightening production, is expected to partly outweigh the influence of the high AUD in maintaining beef shipments into the US. Volumes from Canada and Mexico are also anticipated to remain strong compared with year ago levels. For 2013, US beef imports are forecast to increase by another 8% on 2012, to 1.19 million tonnes.
US live cattle imports through the first quarter of 2012 were fractionally higher on-year. While the impact of the drought continues to diminish in the US, except for some areas in the southeast and southwest, most of the northern half of Mexico remains under drought conditions, resulting in an increase in US imports of Mexican cattle. Total US cattle imports are forecast to register 2.075 million head in 2012 and 1.95 million head in 2013.
Following the 12% decline in US beef exports during the March quarter, the USDA forecasts US beef exports during the third and fourth quarters of 2012 to decrease 9% and 6% year-on-year, respectively. The projected fall in beef exports was alongside an anticipated on-year contraction in beef production by 5% and 8%, respectively. Looking ahead, US beef exports for 2012 are expected to decline 4%, to 1.21 million tonnes, easing a further 1% on-year in 2013, to 1.20 million tonnes.
The US federally inspected beef cow slaughter has declined steadily since last fall, when beef cows represented about 60% of total cow slaughter. While feeder cattle prices have dipped from the 2012 high, prices are expected to increase later this year and in 2013.
US cattle and beef prices have reportedly reached their seasonal spring highs early this year, consistent with weather patterns and weight gains by cattle in feedlots through the mild winter. According to the USDA, wholesale beef markets have weathered major events during March and April 2012 well, while retail beef prices continued at historically high levels, averaging US$5.05 per pound for choice beef and US$4.70 per pound for all fresh beef in April.
