May 21, 2009

A dry spring in eastern and central Europe has dampened prospects of matching last year's bumper grain crop, although recent rain may help recover sowings in some countries.

Dryness in March and April have affected wheat and barley sowings, forcing analysts to cut harvest estimates for Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia.

French analyst Strategie Grains reduced its forecast for the EU's 2009 total grain crops by 4.5 million tonnes to 289.7 million after the dryness reduced yield prospects in eastern Europe.

Hungary's agricultural think-tank reduced wheat crop estimates to four million tonnes, down from last year's 5.6 million tonnes, as the country has not seen major rainfall since late March.

Czech grain sowings suffered from a dry spell earlier this year, and industry officials expect the harvest to fall to average or below average levels from 8.43 million tonnes harvested in 2008.

Some farmers fear the lack of rain in northern Slovakia may cut the grain crop by as much as 40 percent, according to a spokesman for the Slovak Chamber of Agriculture and Food.

In Bulgaria and Serbia, farmers no longer expect record high crops, as Bulgarian famers worry that wheat yields may reach only 3.2 tonnes per hectare.

Bulgaria's 2009 wheat crop is likely to fall below four million tonnes from 4.5 million last year, industry officials said.

Bulgaria's 2009 wheat crop is likely to fall below 4 million tonnes from 4.5 million last year, industry officials say.

Polish farmers also expect the grain crop to drop five percent to about 26.3-26.6 million tonnes due to drought.

Rainfall in recent days may help, but it is too early to say if there is an improvement, said Zbigniew Kaszuba of the National Federation of Grain Producers in Poland.