May 21, 2007

 

US pork exports to depend on population growth

 

 

US weekly hog outlook reports that as of May 19, pork exports were down in March from a year earlier, the second in a row for exports below 12 months earlier. The big decrease was from Mexico, which was down 28.3 percent in March after being down 21.3 percent in February.

 

Pork exports for January ¨C March, however, were still up nearly three percent from 2006. But the decline of 7.6 percent in April is expected to pull down exports from last year's levels for January to April.

 

Pork imports for January to March were down 7.7 percent from 2006. The report says imports from Canada were down 5.5 percent, Denmark was down 25.1 percent, but Poland was up 19.6 percent for January - March compared to 12 months earlier.

 

Net exports as a percent of production has slightly increased by 0.69 percent for January to March to 10.23 percent in 2007 from the previous year's 9.54 percent.

 

Live hog imports from Canada for the first three months of the year increased by 7.9 percent from a year earlier as feeder pig imports were up 6.4 percent and slaughter hog imports were up 11.4 percent from 12 months earlier.

 

Retail pork prices in April were 0.4 percent below March but 0.6 percent higher than April 2006. For January to April, retail pork prices were 1.1 percent above 12 months earlier.

 

US hog weekly says the increase in retail prices was enjoyed by hog producers as total marketing margin for pork for January - April was down two percent from a year earlier. For April, live hog prices were up 16.8 percent from last year while the January - April live price was up 10.2 percent from 12 months earlier.

 

The US hog weekly mainly indicates 2007 growth in live hog demand is from population growth, narrower marketing margins and increased net pork exports. The factor that had contributed to stronger live hog demand, which is not likely to last, is the narrower marketing margins.

 

Corn planting progress last week in the US was much better than anticipated. The US planted percentage at the end of the week of May 13 was 78 percent, up from 53 percent a week earlier. However, 2006 planted percentage at week ending May 13 was at 83 percent.

 

Live hog weights for barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week at 265.9 pounds per head were 1.8 pounds below a week earlier and down 3.0 pounds per head from a year earlier. This is the largest decrease in weights from last year since mid-February and is due, at least in part, to the high corn prices.

 

Pork product prices inched up some this week with the cutout at US$77.74 per cwt (hundredweight) Thursday (May 17) afternoon, up US$0.93 per cwt from a week earlier. Pork loins were up US$0.73 per cwt at US$97.86 per cwt, Boston butts at US$76.66 per cwt were up US$2.69 per cwt, hams were down US$3 per cwt at US$55.33 per cwt, and bellies at US$111.33 per cwt were up US$4.75 per cwt from seven days earlier.

 

Live hog prices Friday (May 18) morning were US$1 per cwt lower to US$2 per cwt higher compared to a week earlier. The weighted average carcass prices for negotiated hogs on the morning also on May 18 were up US$0.81 to US$2.70 per cwt compared to seven days earlier.

 

The top live prices Friday morning for select markets were: Peoria US$48 per cwt, St. Paul US$51 per cwt and interior Missouri US$50.50 per cwt.

 

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 1,952 thousand head, down 0.3 percent from a year earlier.