May 19, 2014

 

China to see rising demand and output of agricultural products within 10 years

 

 

In the next decade, new operation systems will strengthen China's agricultural production, with the transformation of development patterns mainly driven by science and technology advancement, according to the China Agriculture Outlook Report for 2014-23.

 

The report also mentions that agriculture in China will continue to enjoy a favourable policy environment. Meanwhile, the application of IT technology is expected to introduce new opportunities for agriculture.

 

However, China will face rising production constraints due to scarcity of land and water resource and increasing risks in production caused by climate change. Despite that, the demand growth for agricultural products will be slightly higher than production growth.

 

Still, the production of major agricultural products will show a steady and upward trend in the next 10 years as outputs of rice, wheat, sugar and vegetables increase steadily. The output of aquatic products, beef, mutton, feed, corn, oil seeds, poultry and eggs may also see rapid growth.

 

Meat production may fall slightly behind consumption growth, while import is expected to rise. Dairy production could grow by an average annual rate of 3.5%, the fastest among the products covered by the report.

 

Soybean import growth may slow down substantially even as the annual import volume is expected to reach 73 million tonnes in 2023. Due to changing policies, cotton production will also drop in terms of planting area and output, with its consumption expected to grow slowly.

 

In the meantime, feed production is expected to rise at an annual rate of 2.3% due to growth in compound feed production. Feed consumption may also see a steady growth.

 

Strong growth will be seen in demand for major agricultural products with over 2% annual growth for aquatic products, milk, corn, sugar and fruits.  Moderate growth is expected for meat, wheat, rice, cotton and vegetables.

 

On a more positive development, China will maintain a high level of self-sufficiency in rice, wheat and corn, according to the report.

 

The demand of poultry, eggs, vegetables and fruits for processing will grow rapidly, but the trade balance of these products will remain in surplus. Aquatic production is expected to see continual increase due to development in aquaculture.

 

The report concluded that agriculture in China will continue to provide fundamental support to the country's economic development, while contributing to global food security and safety.