May 19, 2008

China's soy imports to double in the next five years

Brazil and Argentina will have a lot more soy expansion to accomplish over the next five years if it is to meet perceived Chinese demand, which is seen hitting 55.4 million tonnes by 2012, Brazilian consultancy Austin Asis said Friday (May 16, 2008).

China imported around 28.7 million tonnes in 2007, and accounts for 41 percent of the world's soy import market. That share should rise to over 56 percent by 2012, according to the agency.

Austin Asis is one of the largest financial and business risk information firms in Latin America.

Although the US is expected remain as the No. 1 soy exporter, Brazil and Argentina's soy exports will rise along with Chinese demand.

The report also expects Brazil and Argentina to gradually narrow the gap with the US as soy acreage in the latter is expected to decline due to expanded interest on corn, the report said.

Brazil's soy exports is expected to rise 15 percent this year to 27 million tonnes while Argentina's soy exports is expected to rise 21 percent to 11.5 million tonnes, the report quoted USDA forecasts as saying.

Soy production is expected to increase over the next five years worldwide, with China leading demand.

However, China would likely be self-sufficient in soymeal and soyoil in the medium term. Still, new markets such as Russia and India would likely emerge as new markets for soymeal and soyoil in the future, the report said.