May 18, 2012

China's cotton yield seen 9% lower

For 2012/13, the cotton crop of China is estimated at 30.5 million bales (6.64 million tonnes), three million tonnes less, or 9%, from the previous year.

The forecast area of five million hectares is down more than 9% from a year ago and down 1.2 million hectares from its peak of 6.2 million in 2007/08.

The forecast yield of 1,326 kilogrammes per hectare is nearly the same as last year and slightly below the record yield of 1335 kg/ha from 2009/10. Yields have been fairly flat (between 1300 and 1335 kg/ha) since 2006/07.

According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the surge in Chinese cotton imports has reduced the amount of cotton available in the rest of the world this season. US exports are dropping by 21% to 2.5 million tonnes due to reduced supplies, but shipments from India, Brazil and Australia could reach record levels.

Planting-intention reports from several sources all agreed that Chinese farmers would reduce cotton area in 2012/13 by 5 to 10% nationally. The provinces with the largest reductions (as much as 20%) are located in eastern and central China.

Area reductions are expected to be relatively small in Xinjiang province, which now accounts for about one-third of China's cotton area and nearly one-half of cotton output. Cotton planting started in mid-April and progressed without major problems.

Temperatures, rainfall, and soil moisture levels in April and early May were generally favourable for planting, germination and emergence. Spring sandstorms in Northwest China and locally excessive rainfall in parts of eastern China may have caused minor damage to the newly planted cotton crop, but no significant losses were reported.