May 18, 2012

 

Russia's 2012-13 grain exports likely down 28%

 

 

Due to unfavourable weather in the south regions and declining stocks in the south and central export regions, Russia's 2012-13 grain exports could fall 28% to 20 million tonnes, SovEcon agricultural analysts said on Thursday (May 17).

 

Among other factors, which may add pressure on export volumes, SovEcon saw tight grain export supplies from Eastern regions, which are expected to fall after June 30, when a discount for grain transportation from Siberia by rail ends.

 

As for the 2011-12 grain exports season, during the remaining months from May-June grain exports will amount to about 2.5 million tonnes and are expected to reach around 27.7 million tonnes for the whole season.

 

Total export of cereals, including flour and legumes, reached 25.2 million tonnes from July-April, of which wheat accounted 19.5 million tonnes, SovEcon added.

 

Russia's grain exports could decline to 1.5 million tonnes in May and to one million tonnes in June from 2.1 million in April, due to falling shipments from the main deep water port - the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk.

 

Russian wheat exports remained flat in April compared with the previous month at 1.3 million tonnes, after increased shipments to Turkey compensated for reduced supplies to Egypt, SovEcon said in a note on Wednesday (May 16).

 

Russian barley exports rose by 50% in April mainly due to increased supplies to Saudi Arabia. Exports to Iran also rose, while shipments to Egypt and Syria resumed.

 

Russian corn exports rose in April due to shipments from shallow-water ports and will exceed two million tonnes by the end of the season, which lasts from October till September.

 

European wheat futures rose to a six-week high, while US wheat rose to the highest level in more than two weeks on Thursday, boosted in part by concerns about dry weather in Russia.

 

But Deputy Agriculture Minister Ilya Shestakov said last weekend that the government had not changed its view that the total harvest in the coming agricultural year would equal the previous year's result of 94 million tonnes. Shestakov reiterated that the forecast was not revised.

 

"The forecast, which we provided earlier, is not being changed yet. It stands at 93-94 million tonnes," he said.

 

Russia could become the world's No. two wheat exporter after the US this year, rebounding after a catastrophic 2010 drought, although a lack of rainfall this spring could damage the forthcoming crop in some southern export regions.

 

SovEcon agricultural analysts said on Thursday that Russian grain exports could fall 28% to 20 million tonnes in 2012-13 from around 27.7 million tonnes, which it expects in the 2011-12 season, due to unfavourable weather in the south.