May 18, 2006

 

Abiove: Brazil's soy registrations at 60.1 percent for 2006/07 crop

 

 

Registrations of Brazil's soybean exports for the market year 2006/07 hit 60.1 percent of the estimated 56.4-million-tonne harvest as of May 15, up from the 55.7 percent registered two weeks ago and higher as well than the 53.1 percent registered by the same period a year ago for the 2005/06 crop of 53 million tonnes, said the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) on Wednesday (May 17).

 

By comparison, Brazil had already committed 90.1 percent of its roughly 50- million-tonne soy crop to world markets at this time in the 2004/05 season.

 

The total export registration estimate for May 15 comes out to 15.15 million tonnes, compared with 14.04 million tonnes in their previous report dated Apr 30. By the same time last season, Brazil registered nearly 11.9 million tonnes of soybeans for export.

 

However, Wednesday's numbers continued to show a hefty drop in soybean registrations from the roughly 17.08 million tonnes seen at the same point in the 2004/05 market year, when climbing Chinese soybean demand and a favourable exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar contributed to the soy export market.

 

Meanwhile, soymeal registrations for the market year 2006/07 continue to rise as the soy harvest draws to a close. Just under 5.59 million tonnes of soymeal have been registered for export, compared with 4.8 million two weeks ago. In the 2005/06 period, however, 6.2 million tonnes of soymeal were registered for exports at this time.

 

In general, Brazilian soy farmers have been shipping abroad fewer soybean derivatives in recent years, as high taxes, logistical problems and a strong local currency have caused Brazilian soymeal to lose market share to Argentina. In market year 2004/05, for instance, Brazil soymeal registrations totalled 7.9 million tonnes at this time.

 

As a result, Abiove's estimate for the market year 2006/07 soymeal export total is 13.2 million tonnes, compared with the 13.9 million tonnes that Abiove expects will be exported in the 2005/06 market year.

 

Soyoil export registrations by May 15 rose to 1 million tonnes compared with 867,000 tonnes in their previous report, but still lower than the 1.1 million tonnes registered by the same period a year ago.

 

Export estimates for soyoil for market year 2006/07 are 2.35 million tonnes, lower than the 2.6 million tonnes expected for market year 2005/06.

 

Brazil's soy crush estimate for market year 2006/07 is 28.9 million tonnes, slightly lower than the 29.7 million tonnes forecast for market year 2005/06 soy crush due to this season's smaller soy crop. However, it is equivalent to the 28.9 million crushed in 2004/05 and higher than the 27.8 million in 2003/04.

 

Brazil is the world's second largest soybean producer after the US.