May 17, 2012

US soy exports rise on reduced South American stocks

As South America's exportable surpluses decreases from drought, the US is working hard to capture market share in the Southeast Asia, in hopes of exporting more than 600,000 metric tonnes of soy in the May-August period.

This will partly offset the impact of the sluggish business in the second half of 2011, a senior industry executive said Wednesday (May 16).

So far in 2011-12, US soy exports to Southeast Asia are around 9% lower on year but because of the ongoing aggressive bookings, "the year will end with sales around 2.6 million tonnes, which will still be 3% lower on year," American Soybean Association's Regional Director for Southeast Asia, John A. Lindblom said on the sidelines of an international grains conference.

"Usually this isn't the peak period for US soy exports in the region but things are different this time around," he said. US soy exports got off to a slow start in September because of a bumper 2011 harvest meant Brazil was an aggressive exporter at that point, but the latest drought in South America has dramatically changed the scenario, Lindblom said.

He said the trend of brisk sales will continue into the first half of 2012-13 as the next South American harvest will reach the market only by March.

US soy exports to Indonesia and Vietnam are projected to rise by a combined 100,000 tonnes in 2011-12 while sales have suffered in Thailand, Lindblom said. Thailand bought large volumes of cheaper soy from Brazil in 2011, taking US sales there down almost 40% to 300,000 tonnes.

Sales to Vietnam have increased but not to the extent that was expected after two new soy crushing plants there started operations in 2011, he said.

A workers' strike in one of the US grain port terminals and lower soy crushing margins in Vietnam resulted in projected shipments to Vietnam coming in below expectations at 250,000 tonnes in 2011-12, though still some 40% higher on year.

Meanwhile, US soymeal exports to Southeast Asia in the current marketing year ending September 30 could be close to 1 million tonnes, up 2% on year amid increased sales in Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, he said. US soymeal exports to Indonesia have more than doubled to almost 60,000 tonnes so far in the year, Lindblom said.