May 17, 2004

US Record Corn Production And Yield Expected In 2004/05
 

The 2004/05 corn crop is projected at a record 10,425 million bushels, up from the previous record of 10,114 million bushels from a year earlier. This year-over-year change stems from a nearly 800,000 acre increase in harvested area to 71.9 million acres, and a 2.8 bushel per acre increase in yield to a record 145 bushels per acre.

USDA generally uses a trend yield estimate for the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. However, the yield forecast was raised above this trend due to the accelerated corn planting this spring. As of May 9, 2004, 84 percent of the 2004/05 corn crop has been planted. This is the most rapid corn planting pace on record and well above the 5-year average of 63 percent. Planted area is based on the March Prospective Plantings report, and harvested acreage is based on the relationship between planted and harvested area from 1998-2003 (omitting 2002).

Beginning 2004/05 corn stocks are 806 million bushels, down from 1,087 million a year earlier.  Total corn supply is 11,246 million bushels, up fractionally from the previous year.  Total corn utilization is projected at a record 10,505 million bushels, up from 10,405 million bushels the previous year. This year-over-year increase stems from increased food, seed, and industrial use and exports; feed and residual are down 1 percent to 5,725 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial use are projected at 2,680 million bushels, up from 2,555 million bushels expected in 2003/04. Increased ethanol production is the major factor behind this year-over-year increase. Exports for 2004/05 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, up 50 million from the previous year.

Ending stocks of corn for 2004/05 are projected at 741 million bushels, down from 806 million a year earlier and the lowest since 1995/96. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 7 percent in 2004/05, down from 7.7 percent a year earlier. Season average corn prices for 2004/05 are projected at $2.55-$2.95 per bushel compared with $2.45-$2.55 per bushel the previous year.