May 16, 2012

EU rapeseed area, output likely to drop from 2011

For 2012/13, the rapeseed output in the EU is projected at 18 million tonnes, a decline of 1.1 million tonnes or 6% from the previous year, and 1.8 million tonnes, or 9%, lower from the five-year average.

Harvested area is estimated at six million hectares, down 0.6 million or 10% from last year, and down 0.6 million tonnes or 10% below the five-year average.

Rapeseed, traditionally the first winter crop planted, needs significant vegetative development prior to winter. Autumn dryness was a major problem in Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, preventing it from achieving the necessary vegetative growth with some fields failing to emerge.

According to rapeseed experts, fall establishment is the key for rapeseed yields, because if the plant isn't properly established prior to winter, it is more vulnerable to winterkill and is more susceptible to spring drought and diseases. Compared to last year, harvested area is estimated to be down 78% in Romania and 36% in both Hungary and Bulgaria.

After a mild start to winter, there was an occurrence of lower temperatures that suddenly dropped to -20 to -25 °C in Poland and Germany during early February. Conditions conducive to winterkill were scattered throughout Europe during this period but were concentrated in Poland and Germany, where protective snowcover was absent for the entire week-long event in Poland and for about half the week in Germany. Without snowcover to insulate crops from extremely low temperatures, damage is expected to be widespread in Poland and areas of Germany.

Winterkill is also expected to have damaged rapeseed in eastern France, and was likely above average in much of central Europe. Rapeseed is estimated to sustain damage at temperatures of -15 °C with no snowcover. Spring rapeseed is a fairly small producing crop in the greater EU, but it could increase significantly in Poland this year.