May 16, 2008

 

Canada's live swine exports to US down after record levels last year

 

 

US imports of live swine from Canada have dipped to just below year-ago levels in the past two weeks, reflecting a reduction in the Canadian herd after record shipments last year.

 

Shipments in the latest two weeks have averaged 2.3 percent below a year ago, while the year-to-date figure is up 17.8 percent.

 

Swine imports from Canada last year hit a record 10.0 million head, according to USDA data.

 

The category with the largest declines from a year ago is slaughter barrows and gilts, which showed a 24-percent drop over two weeks to 17,334 head from the year-ago figures.

 

However, weekly feeder pig imports have remained larger than a year ago and are offsetting most of the decline in slaughter hogs shipped in from Canada.

 

USDA's data show feeder pig imports year-to-date are up 21.6 percent, and slaughter hog imports are up 13.7 percent.

 

Market analysts said high feed costs and unfavorable exchange rates have caused Canadian producers to ship more of the animals rather than feeding them in Canada. Since more pig shipments were very large earlier in the year, there are now fewer slaughter hogs available.

 

The impact on US weekly slaughter rates may not change much through at least the third quarter. Feeder pigs shipped into the country through mid-May will take about five to 5 1/2-months to reach slaughter weight.

 

Eventually the herd reduction in Canada will result in fewer hogs and pigs available to be shipped to the US, and that could be reflected in the slaughter rates by late this year or early next, analysts said.

 

Rich Nelson, analyst with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill., said the USDA data confirm that Canada will be sending fewer hogs south into the US by the end of the summer and throughout the balance of the year. Nelson predicts that hog imports by late this year will be down about 5 percent from a year ago, and imports into 2009 could drop 10 percent.