May 15, 2013

USDA's May 1 forecast showed that Kansas wheat crop will fall 22%, to 299.7 million bushels, versus last year's 382.2 million bushel harvest.

If the forecast holds, the number of acres producing wheat will be down 11%, mostly because drought has stunted so many fields in western Kansas. Yields state-wide are forecast to average 37 bushels per acre, down five bushels from 2012.

In south-central Kansas, the state's most productive wheat growing region, the crop is projected to be down 19%, to 75.5 million bushels. The acreage in the area is down 9%, and the yield is projected at 38 bushels per acre this year, down from 43 bushels last year.

Farther west, the effects of the drought and freezes are more dramatic. The amount of wheat harvested is expected to be down 48% in southwest Kansas, 45% in the west-central region, and 43% in the northwest region.

Gary Millershaski, a wheat farmer in Kearny County, west of Garden City, said that two years ago his wheat got hailed on, cutting yields to 17 bushels an acre. Last year was okay, at 34 bushels an acre. This year, he said, may be worse than two years ago. He said the freezes were not that important, but the drought has been punishing. This year a third of his fields has potential for 25 bushels per acre, a third has a potential for 17-18 bushels per acre, and a third is already "zeroed out," he said.

The central and north-central regions are down only slightly from last year, while the less important wheat-growing areas in the eastern third of the state may even be up slightly, according to the USDA report.

USDA will make its next forecast for the wheat crop after assessing conditions on June 1.