May 15, 2008

EU grain harvest to be up 13 percent on-year

Agricultural consultancy Strategie Grains continues to forecast a bumper EU harvest in 2008-09, with output projected to rise 13 percent on-year to 289.1 million tonnes.

"Weather conditions through the second half of May and June will be crucial in determining final yields," said the report.

For soft wheat, the largest EU crop, Strategie Grains projects output at 128.3 million tonnes, or up 15 percent on-year. However, the analysts warned unfavorable weather could trim production to as low as 111 million tonnes, but favorable weather could boost it up to 144 million tonnes.

Wet weather in April resulted in increased incidences of leaf disease in winter cereals in western EU countries. However, the diseases have been kept under control and yield potentials remain good, according to Strategie Grains.

The rainy April also caused spring planting delays in western EU countries, but more favorable weather at the start of May allowed farmers to catch up.

"We do not envisage a negative impact on yield potential," said Strategie Grains on the seeding delays.