Forecast for EU wheat production takes a downturn

French analyst Strategie Grains on Thursday (May 13) cut its monthly estimate for the EU's 2010 soft wheat crop by 1.2 million tonnes to 133 million to reflect unfavourable weather in the western part of the bloc.

The revised forecast for the soft wheat crop was for it to be 2% higher than the 129.8 million tonnes harvested in 2009.

"Dry conditions were recorded in the west EU countries, sometimes accompanied by very low temperatures for the time of the year, and we have therefore reduced our harvest forecasts for the countries concerned," the analyst said.

It pointed to Germany, for which Strategie Grains now predicts a crop of 25.3 million tonnes of wheat, down 800,000 tonnes from its April estimate, and France, now expected to harvest 36.4 million tonnes, down 500,000 on last month.

"Also, losses and damage through the winter were greater than we previously anticipated in Scandinavia, Poland and the Baltic countries: production in these countries fall by 1.2 million tonnes in total," it said.

But heavy rains in southeast Europe brought some relief to soft wheat crops in countries such as Hungary, Bulgaria or Romania, which saw their combined crop estimate raised by 1.2 million tonnes.

Strategie Grains slightly raised its estimate for this year's European corn crop at 58.5 million tonnes, from 58.3 million forecast in April, and 57.2 million harvested last year.

In total, the EU's grains crop was now expected to reach 289.5 million tonnes, down 1.1% on 2009.