US feed grain production prospects up in 2010/11

US feed grain production is expected to do well this year, with the projected increase in overall planted and harvested areas for corn, sorghum, barley and oat, according to the USDA data.

US feed grain production for 2010/11 is projected at 354 million tonnes, up from 349 million in 2009/10. This on-year increase stems from the projected increase in planted and harvested area for corn, but planted and harvest area for sorghum and barley are projected to be less this year. Oats production is expected to decrease from 2009, with trend yields lower than last year's record level.

For the four feed grains combined, overall planted and harvested area will increase in 2010/11, but yield is projected to be lower. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings. Beginning feed grain stocks are projected at 49 million tonnes in 2010/11, up from 47 million tonnes in 2009/10. Total 2010/11 feed grain supply is projected at 405 million tonnes, up from 398 million in 2009/10.

Feed grain use is expected to increase by 2% in 2010/11, with higher projected ethanol production. Feed and residual use is expected to decline 1.1 million tonnes in 2010/11 to 142 million. Plentiful supplies of distillers' grains are expected to encourage more feeders to reduce feed grain use. Exports are expected to increase from 54 million tonnes in 2009/10 to 55 million in 2010/11, as the global economy continues to recover. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected at 158 million tonnes in 2010/11, up from 153 million in 2009/10, nearly all on increased corn use for ethanol.

Ending feed grain supplies are projected to increase 1.6 million tonnes from the 49 million projected in 2009/10. Prices are expected to remain strong but will fall from 2009/10 and their record highs.