May 13, 2014

EU could export more wheat than US in 2014/15
 

According to the world supply and demand estimates for new crops issued by USDA, total world wheat exports will reach about 152 million tonnes, with the EU likely to beat US in exports in 2014/15.

Of this, the EU is expected to account for 27.5 million tonnes, while the United States is likely to ship less than 26 milion tonnes. Other main exporters include Canada (21 million tonnes), Russia (19 million tonnes) and Australia (18.5 million tonnes).

The WASDE release puts world end-of-season stocks of wheat for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 higher than average trade estimates, at 186.53 million tonnes and 187.42 million tonnes respectively.

Although US wheat production is set to fall 8% to 53.4 million tonnes, world corn global corn production for 2014/15 is forecast at a record 979.1 million tonnes, very close to that of 2013/14. This is expected to lead to a 15-year high in end-of-season stocks.