May 13, 2013

US 2014 corn carryover up 164% and soybean carryover up 112%

In the first forecast for the 2013-14 marketing year, US corn carryover on September 1, 2014, was projected at 2,004 million bushels (50.90 million tonnes), up 1,245 million bushels (31.62 million tonnes), or 164%, from an upwardly revised 759 million bushels (19.28 million tonnes) in 2013. Soybean carryover was projected at 265 million bushels (7.21 million tonnes), up 140 million bushels (3.81 million tonnes), or 112%, from 125 million bushels (3.40 million tonnes) in 2013.

The corn carryover was above the trade average that was near 1,973 million bushels (50.12 million tonnes), and soybean carryover number was above the average trade of expectation near 239 million bushels (6.50 million tonnes). The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

USDA projected 2013 US corn production at a record high 14,140 million bushels (359.17 million tonnes), up 31% from 10,780 million bushels (273.82 million tonnes) in 2012 based on planted area of 97.3 million acres, up slightly from 2012, and harvested area of 89.5 million acres, up 2%, and yield of 158 bushels (4.01 tonnes) an acre, up 28% from 123.4 bushels (3.14 tonnes). The average price of corn was projected to range from US$4.30-5.10 a bushel (0.025 tonnes) in 2013-14, down from US$6.70-7.10 a bushel (0.025 tonnes) estimated for the current year and US$6.22 a bushel (0.025 tonnes) in 2011-12.

US total corn supply in 2013-14 was projected at 14,924 million bushels (379.09 million tonnes), up 25% from 11,894 million bushels (302.12 million tonnes) in 2012-13, based on beginning stocks of 759 million bushels (19.28 million tonnes), imports of 25 million bushels (635,029 tonnes), down 100 million bushels (2.54 million tonnes) from 2012-13, and record 2013 production of 14,140 million bushels (359.17 million tonnes).

Corn exports were projected at 1,300 million bushels (33.02 million tonnes) in 2013-14, up 550 million bushels (13.97 million tonnes), or 73%, from 750 million bushels (19.05 million tonnes) in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 12,920 million bushels (328.18 million tonnes), up 1,785 million bushels (45.34 million tonnes), or 1% from 11,135 million bushels (282.84 million tonnes) in the current year.

USDA projected 2013 US soybean production at a record 3,390 million bushels (92.26 million tonnes), up 12%, from 3,015 million bushels (82.05 million tonnes) in 2012, planted area at 77.1 million acres, down slightly, and harvested area at 76.2 million acres, up slightly, and yield at 44.5 bushels (1.21 tonnes) an acre, up 12% from 39.6 bushels (1.08 tonnes) an acre. The average price of soybeans in 2013-14 was projected to range from US$9.50-11.50 a bushel (0.027 tonnes), compared with US$14.30 this year and US$12.50 in 2011-12.

US total soybean supply in 2013-14 was projected at 3,530 million bushels (96.07 million tonnes), up 326 million bushels (8.87 million tonnes), or 10%, from 3,204 million bushels (87.20 million tonnes) in 2012-13, and based on beginning stocks of 125 million bushels (3.40 million tonnes), production of 3,390 million bushels (92.26 million tonnes) and imports of 15 million bushels (408,233 tonnes).

Domestic soybean crush in 2013-14 was projected at 1,695 million bushels (46.13 million tonnes), up 60 million bushels (1.63 million tonnes), or 4%, from 1,635 million bushels (44.50 million tonnes) in 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1,450 million bushels (39.46 million tonnes), up 100 million bushels (2.72 million tonnes), or 7%, from 1,350 million bushels (36.74 million tonnes) in 2012-13. Seed use was projected at 87 million bushels (2.37 million tonnes), down 3 million bushels (81,647 tonnes) from the current year, residual at 33 million (898,113 tonnes) bushels, up 28 million bushels (762,035 tonnes), and total use at 3,264 million bushels (88.83 million tonnes), up 184 million bushels (5.00 million tonnes), or 6%, from 3,080 million bushels (83.82 million tonnes) in 2012-13.