May 13, 2013

 

Forecast for US winter wheat production down by 10%

 

 

The winter wheat harvest is expected to be far smaller this season compared to last, particularly for hard red varieties used in bread, the US Department of Agriculture reported on May 10.

 

In the first government projection on the harvest's anticipated size, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated winter wheat production will be down 10% to 1.49 billion bushels (40.55 million tonnes), due to fewer acres – 32.7 million acres, some 6% fewer acres than a year ago – and a 1.8-bushel (0.049 tonnes) decrease in average yields, to 45.4 bushels (1.24 tonnes) per acre.

 

The government's forecast comes amid a season marked by drought and late spring freezes in the Midwest's major wheat growing areas, particularly in Kansas – the nation's biggest winter wheat-producing state, and Texas.

 

"There is concern about the significant production shortfalls from last year to this year and everybody is going to be watching the next 6-8 weeks to see how this crop finishes out," said Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer for industry group Kansas Wheat.

 

Nationwide production of hard red winter wheat, typically used to make bread, is expected to decline 23% to 768 million bushels (20.90 million tonnes). Soft red winter wheat types – favoured for cookies and pastries, are projected to be up 19% at 501 million bushels (13.63 million tonnes).

 

"What the millers and bakers and exporters are going to be looking at real closely now is the spring wheat crop and what is going to happen," Gilpin said. "Spring wheat is traditionally stronger, higher protein and also used for bread, and so the blends that you see are usually between hard red winter and hard red spring wheat."

 

The hard red spring wheat crop, currently being planted, will be closely monitored to see if it'll be able to make up for the hard red winter wheat shortages, he said. Wheat buyers are also expected to purchase wheat that had been left over from last season's crop.

 

White winter wheat, at 217 million bushels (5.91 million tonnes), is expected to be down 2% from last year, NASS reported. States that will see declines in production include Washington (3.16 million tonnes), Oklahoma (3.10 million tonnes) and Montana (2.28 million tonnes).

 

The crop outlook for drought-weary Texas is so poor that the state is forecast to harvest just 54 million bushels (1.47 million tonnes) of wheat, compared to the 96 million bushels (2.61 million tonnes) produced amid last year's drought. In 2010, Texas was the nation's second largest producer behind Kansas.

 

Kansas, which mostly raises hard red winter wheat, is forecast to harvest 299.7 million bushels (8.16 million tonnes), down 22% from last year's 382.2 million bushels (10.56 million tonnes). It's also below the forecast of 313 million bushels (8.52 million tonnes) estimated by participants in the Kansas wheat quality tour earlier this month.

 

Far western Kansas is considered a disaster area, and farmers told tour participants earlier this month that crop insurance agents have already begun writing off acres there. Wheat tour participants examined 570 fields, finding that in south-central Kansas, which got late winter snowstorms and heavy spring rains, the wheat looks good and production there is expected to offset some losses elsewhere in the state.