May 13, 2009

US soy exports will reach a record-high 1.26 billion bushels in the 2009-10 marketing year, the USDA said Tuesday (May 12) in its monthly supply and demand report.

The new forecast is stronger than the USDA's first 2009-10 forecast of 1.225 billion, released in February at the 2009 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. The latest estimate for US soy exports in the 2008-09 marketing year is 1.24 billion bushels.

The USDA, in its May edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, said less "South American supplies, due to drought in Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil are projected to push US soy exports" to a record level.

Soy ending stocks for the 2009-10 marketing year are now forecast much lower than the USDA predicted back in the February forum. The new prediction is for 230 million bushels and is down significantly from the February forecast of 380 million. The new ending stocks forecast is still higher than the 2008-09 level of 130 million bushels.

Along with increased US soy exports this year, worldwide demand is also stronger, the USDA said. World soy imports in 2009-10 will total 74.4 million tonnes - an increase from 72.34 million in 2008-09, the USDA said. Part of that increase, according to the report, is due to stronger demand from China.

China will import 38.1 million tonnes of soy in 2009-10, up from 37.5 million tonnes in 2008-09, the USDA said.