May 13, 2004
USDA Supply-Demand: Revised Estimates of China Corn
Revised Estimates of China Corn Consumption and Ending Stocks
Supply and demand estimates for corn and coarse grain published in the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report incorporate significant revisions of USDA's estimates of China's corn consumption and stocks. China's government does not publish estimates of grain stocks. Recently, however, information from China's National Bureau of Statistics' surveys of urban households (August 2002) and rural households (November 2003), official statements, and evidence from trade and price patterns indicated that revisions in stock estimates were needed.
Domestic consumption and ending stocks of corn for China are revised beginning with the 1993/94 marketing year (See page 36). Historical world corn and coarse grain estimates on page 37 and 38 reflect these changes. Revised estimates for China's coarse grains, which are available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm in spreadsheet format, only reflect changes in corn use and stocks; estimates for China's other coarse grains are not revised.
There are two parts to the corn consumption revisions. First, USDA lowered estimates of non-feed consumption (consisting of food, industrial, and seed use) back to 1993/94. Estimated food consumption was lowered. However, industrial use (for production of starch, alcohol, and other products) is surging. The net effect is that China's overall non-feed consumption is growing at an average annual rate of 2-3 percent a year, not the 5-8 percent previously estimated. Second, feed use is lowered from 1994/95 to 1999/2000 and then raised in subsequent years. These changes make corn feed use more consistent with USDA's meat production estimates for China, USDA's estimates of the feed use of soybean meal and other protein meals, and with structural changes that have occurred in China's livestock sector.
WASDE-410-36
China corn supply and use as of April 2004
Thousand metric tons
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Total
Beginning domestic Ending
stocks Production Import Exports Feed Use use stocks
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1993/1994: 84,534 102,700 0 11,594 66,000 93,500 82,140
1994/1995: 82,140 99,280 4,287 1,333 74,000 100,600 83,774
1995/1996: 83,774 112,000 1,476 157 79,000 106,000 91,093
1996/1997: 91,093 127,470 75 3,892 83,000 111,000 103,746
1997/1998: 103,746 104,309 287 6,173 86,000 113,000 89,169
1998/1999: 89,169 132,954 262 3,338 87,000 115,500 103,547
1999/2000: 103,547 128,086 71 9,935 90,000 118,000 103,769
2000/2001: 103,769 106,000 89 7,276 91,000 119,940 82,642
2001/2002: 82,642 114,088 39 8,611 92,000 123,300 64,858
2002/2003: 64,858 121,300 29 15,244 93,000 126,500 44,443
2003/2004: 44,443 114,000 100 8,000 94,000 129,100 21,443
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China corn supply and use as of May 2004
Thousand metric tons
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Total
Beginning: domestic : Ending
stocks Production:Imports:Exports :Feed Use: use stocks
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1993/1994: 84,534 102,700 0 11,594 66,000 92,900 82,740
1994/1995: 82,740 99,280 4,287 1,333 71,000 97,000 87,974
1995/1996: 87,974 112,000 1,476 157 75,000 101,200 100,093
1996/1997: 100,093 127,470 75 3,892 79,000 105,750 117,996
1997/1998: 117,996 104,309 287 6,173 82,500 109,500 106,919
1998/1999: 106,919 132,954 262 3,338 86,500 113,920 122,877
1999/2000: 122,877 128,086 71 9,935 89,500 117,300 123,799
2000/2001: 123,799 106,000 89 7,276 92,000 120,240 102,372
2001/2002: 102,372 114,088 39 8,611 94,000 123,100 84,788
2002/2003: 84,788 121,300 29 15,244 96,000 125,900 64,973
2003/2004: 64,973 114,000 100 8,000 98,000 128,600 42,473
2004/2005: 42,473 115,000 200 4,000 100,000 131,600 22,073
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World corn supply and use as of April 2004
Thousand metric tons
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Total
Beginning: domestic: Ending
stocks Production:Imports:Feed use: use Exports : stocks
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1993/1994: 163,335 476,319 56,973 342,156 511,093 58,765 128,561
1994/1995: 128,561 559,375 68,911 374,233 539,389 66,058 148,547
1995/1996: 148,547 516,658 65,702 368,747 541,640 70,334 123,565
1996/1997: 123,565 591,689 64,856 391,240 564,993 65,543 150,261
1997/1998: 150,261 574,309 63,211 404,338 577,241 63,314 147,329
1998/1999: 147,329 606,336 66,480 404,223 583,529 66,914 170,136
1999/2000: 170,136 607,255 71,724 421,945 605,706 76,888 171,685
2000/2001: 171,685 588,033 75,769 426,464 608,191 77,218 151,527
2001/2002: 151,527 598,691 74,438 434,376 622,014 76,260 128,204
2002/2003: 128,204 602,162 76,450 432,062 627,888 77,354 102,478
2003/2004: 102,478 612,510 76,399 443,806 647,356 76,122 67,632
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World corn supply and use as of May 2004
Thousand metric tons
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Total
Beginning: domestic: Ending
stocks Production:Imports:Feed use: use Exports : stocks
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1993/1994: 162,538 476,069 56,973 342,156 509,601 58,765 129,006
1994/1995: 129,006 559,045 68,911 371,233 535,528 66,058 152,523
1995/1996: 152,523 515,858 65,702 364,747 536,312 70,334 132,069
1996/1997: 132,069 592,664 64,856 387,265 560,121 65,543 164,612
1997/1998: 164,612 574,119 63,211 400,813 573,684 63,314 165,047
1998/1999: 165,047 605,416 66,480 403,723 581,464 66,914 188,999
1999/2000: 188,999 606,830 71,733 421,470 604,562 76,888 191,267
2000/2001: 191,267 589,463 75,648 427,514 609,292 77,218 171,438
2001/2002: 171,438 598,889 74,413 436,486 622,358 76,272 147,969
2002/2003: 147,969 600,988 76,570 435,071 626,804 78,053 122,153
2003/2004: 122,153 614,302 77,134 448,343 649,498 77,262 86,957
2004/2005: 86,957 642,579 74,996 454,298 662,741 77,737 66,795
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Source: USDA
