May 12, 2011

US corn yields expected to be third highest on record

Projected US feed grain supplies for 2011-12 are nearly unchanged from 2010-11 as record production is offset by the smallest beginning stocks in 15 years, where the 2011-12 yield is expected to be the third highest on record.

Corn production for 2011-12 is projected at a record 13.5 billion bushels, up 1.1 billion from 2010-11 as a four-million-acre increase in intended plantings and a recovery from last year's weather-reduced yields and boosted expected output.

 
The 2011-12 corn yield is projected at 158.7 bushels per acre, 3.0 bushels below the 1990-2010 trend, reflecting the slow pace of planting progress through early May.

Corn supplies for 2011-12 are projected at 14.3 billion bushels. This is below the 2009-10 record of 14.8 billion bushels, but up 75 million from 2010-11, as a five-million-bushel increase in 2010-11 imports and a 50-million-bushel reduction in 2010-11 exports boost current year carryout this month.

Total US corn use for 2011-12 is projected down 1% from 2010-11. Corn use for ethanol is projected up 50 million bushels reflecting slow expected growth in gasoline consumption and continued export demand for ethanol in the coming year. Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected at 50 million bushels lower than in 2010-11, reflecting the increased availability of feed by-products from ethanol production and lower expected residual use as compared with the current year.

US corn exports for 2011-12 are projected down 100 million bushels from 2010-11 with larger foreign corn supplies. US corn ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 900 million bushels, up 170 million from the current year projection. Stocks remain historically tight with stocks-to-use projected at 6.7% compared with the current-year projection of 5.4%.

The season-average farm price is projected at a record US$5.50-US$6.50 per bushel compared with the 2010-11 forecast of US$5.10-US$5.40 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2011-12 is projected at a record 1.1 billion tonnes, up 6% from 2010-11. A 52.4-million-ton increase in global corn output to 867.7 million tonnes accounts for 84% of the on-year increase in coarse grain production.

Global corn exports are projected higher for 2011-12 with increases for Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for the US, Canada, and Brazil. Global corn consumption is projected at a record 860.8 million tonnes, up 22.2 million from 2010-11, with nearly all of the increase in foreign markets. World corn ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 129.1 million tonnes, up 7.0 million from 2010-11.