May 12, 2011

US soy production for 2011-12 to increase slightly

US oilseed production for 2011-12 is projected at 99.0 million tonnes, down 1% from 2010-11. Reduced soy production accounts for most of the decline, but sunflower seed, canola, and peanut production, are all projected below last year's crops, according to the USDA's May 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Soy production is projected at 3.285 billion bushels, down 44 million from the 2010 crop mostly due to lower harvested area. Soy yields are projected at a trend level of 43.4 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from 2010. Soy supplies are projected at 3.47 billion bushels, down less than 1% from 2010-11 as larger beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Soy ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 170 million bushels, up 30 million from last month due to reduced exports.

Soy crush for 2011-12 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, up fractionally from 2010-11 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soymeal demand. Lower soymeal export demand projected for 2011-12 is only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soymeal use, leaving total soymeal use down 1% from 2010-11.
 

Domestic soyoil consumption is projected to increase 7% mostly due to biodiesel production gains. Soyoil used for biodiesel production is projected at 3.5 billion pounds, up one billion from 2010-11 reflecting a higher biodiesel use mandate.

With lower 2011-12 US soy supplies and higher South American soy supplies on hand this fall, US soy exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly below the 2010-11 level despite a projected increase in global import demand led by China. Ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010-11, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8%.
 

The US season-average soy price for 2011-12 is projected at US$12.00-US$14.00 per bushel compared with US$11.40 per bushel in 2010-11. Soymeal prices are forecast at US$350 to US$380 per short tonne, compared with US$350 per tonne for 2010-11. Soyoil prices are projected at 56-60 cents per pound compared with 53.5 cents for 2010-11.