India's 2009-10 grain production to take a downturn

India's grain output this crop year is expected to fall by 6.9% on-year to 218.19 million tonnes as one of the worst-ever drought had shrunk the summer-sown crop, according to senior government officials.

India harvested 234.47 million tonnes of grain in the last crop year ended June 2009. The grain output forecast for 2009-10 is higher than the government's previous estimate of 216.85 million tonnes.

The country's rice output is expected to fall by 9.95% to 89.31 million tonnes in 2009-10, while the wheat harvest is expected to rise 0.4% from a year earlier to 80.98 million tonnes.

India's food prices touched multi-year highs in 2010 because of the fall in summer-sown crop output. Food inflation rose 16.04% on the year for the week ended April 24.

The latest estimate means that the food prices may not come down soon in one of Asia's largest economies, despite the expectation of normal monsoon rains in 2010.

Oilseed output in 2009-10 is likely to be 25.41 million tonnes, down 8.3% from last year's output estimate of 27.71 million tonnes. The country is the world's second-largest vegetable oil importer.

Pulses production in 2009-10 is likely to be higher at 14.77 million tonnes, compared with 14.57 million tonnes a year earlier. India imports about three million tonnes of the staple annually.