US 2010-11 soy exports seen to weaken

Soy exports worldwide will be stronger than last year, but US sales to foreign countries are expected to drop for the 2010-11 marketing year, the USDA said Tuesday (May 11).

"US export prospects are reduced due to increased export competition from Argentina and India," the USDA said.

The new 2010-11 marketing year forecast for US soy exports is 1.35 billion bushels, a drop from the USDA 1.455-billion-bushel estimate for 2009-10. Global soy exports for 2010-11 are predicted to be 87.92 million tonnes, up from 85.39 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Weaker US exports, together with an expected smaller crush this year and strong beginning stocks will mean soy ending stocks are forecast to reach 365 million bushels, up from 190 million last year, the USDA said.

"A rebound in South American supplies from last year's drought-reduced levels is projected to limit US soybean exports, down from a record 1.455 billion bushels in 2009-10," the USDA said.

Despite the reduction expected in US exports, China will be buying more this year, the USDA said. The country is expected to import 49 million tonnes, accounting for more than half of world soy trade. Last year, according to USDA data, China imported 46 million tons of soybeans.