May 12, 2009

India's soy output may drop to 8.2 million tonnes in the year ending September 2009, down more than a fifth from early estimates, as lower rainfall trimmed yields in producing areas, a top trade official said.

The Soybean Processors' Association of India (SOPA) chairman Ramesh Chandra Agarwal said that they were expecting soy production at 10.8 million tonnes but lower rainfall has significantly cut yield.

Agarwal added that farmers are hoarding good amount of stocks which makes estimating production difficult.

A sharp downward revision in output of western state of Maharashtra, the second biggest producer, has forced industry to cut the production estimate.

Agarwal said that they were estimating 3.5 million tonnes in Maharashtra, but also due to lower rainfall, output in the state fell by 1.2 million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes.

Lower soy availability has cut the country's soymeal exports, which fell by about 30 percent to 2.67 million tonnes in seven months to April, according to data from SOPA.

The chairman also said that the AH1N1 flu would not impact Indian soymeal prices, adding that they have very little surplus to export and demand is good from neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

There were concerns the global AH1N1 flu outbreak last month may taper soymeal demand from animal feed industry.

In the year ended September 2008, the country's soy output touched 9.5 million tonnes, sharply up from the previous year.