May 12, 2008

 

Canada's oilseed production expected to rise 9 percent

 

 

Canadian oilseed production in 2008-09 is forecast to increase to 12.5 million tonnes from 11.5 million tonnes a year earlier, due to a return to average yields, according to a USDA attache report posted Friday (May 9, 2008) on the Foreign Agricultural Services Web site.

 

Total Canadian oilseed output (rapeseed + soy + sunflower seed) during 2008/09 is forecast to reach about 12.5 million tonnes, a 9-percent increase from the 11.5 million tonnes produced a year earlier.

 

This is due to an 8-percent increase in rapeseed production and 12 percent increase in soy production.

 

However, sunflower seed production is expected to fall by 26 percent compared to 2007/2008 levels as producers reduce acreage by 21 percent due to competition from more lucrative crops. 

 

In late April 2008, Statistics Canada reported that rapeseed producers intended to plant 0.5 percent more hectares than last year. The expected increase in rapeseed production is attributed to a return to more normal yields after extreme heat during last year's growing season.

 

Statistics Canada's March planting intentions survey indicates that soy producers will plant 2.4 percent more acreage in 2008/09. The expected 12-percent increase in soy production is mostly driven by an expected increase in yields.

 

Oilseed meal production (rapeseed and soy) in 2008/09 is forecast to reach 3.53 million tonnes, a 5-percent increase from the previous year's levels.

 

Soymeal production is likely to increase 12 percent due to increased soy production  but despite a forecasted 8 percent increase in rapeseed production, rapeseed meal production will only increase marginally (2 percent).

 

This reflects the available supplies of rapeseed for crush. The increase in rapeseed production is off-set by low beginning stocks.

 

Canada is a net exporter of rapeseed meal and a net importer of soy meal.

 

Rapeseed meal exports are expected to increase by a marginal 1 percent in 2008/2009 due to decreased supplies resulting from flat carry-in stocks and only marginal increases in rapeseed meal production.

 

Most will likely go to the US market where it is used in dairy rations. Soymeal imports from the US are expected to decline due to a contraction in Canada's hog industry and increased domestic production.