May 12, 2008

Red meat production to decline, prices to increase in 2009
 

Lower cattle supplies will push down beef production in 2009 which would force up prices, according to the USDA on Friday in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demands Estimates.
 

Beef production in 2009 is projected at 26.5 billion pounds, down from 26.8 billion pounds this year.

Total red meat production in 2009 is forecast to reach 49.8 billion pounds, down from 50.6 billion pounds in 2008.

Total red meat exports could decline to 5.87 billion pounds in 2009 from 5.96 billion pounds in 2009, as pork exports are to decline to 4 billion pounds from 4.3 billion pounds should China's domestic pork supply situation improves. That would offset the expected increase of beef exports to 1.87 billion pounds from 1.64 billion pounds due to the reopening of the South Korean market.

Average prices for choice steers are forecast to rise to US$88-96 per hundredweight in 2009 compared to an estimated US$89-93 per head for 2008.

In addition, pork production is expected to decline later this year and next year due to reduced farrowings. Pork production in 2009 is estimated at 22.9 billion pounds, down from 23.5 billion pounds in 2008.

Average prices for barrows and gilts are forecast to rise to US$44-48 per hundredweight in 2009 compared to an estimated US$43-45 in 2008.

The price increases are attributed to lower meat supplies.