May 10, 2006

 

Brazil soy export registrations at 55.7 percent for 2006/07 crop

 

 

Registrations of Brazilian soybean exports for market year 2006/07 are at 55.7 percent of the estimated 56.4-million-tonne harvest as of Apr 30, up from 46 percent registered two weeks ago and up from the 48.3 percent registered out of the 53-million-tonne crop in late April in market-year 2005/06, the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) said Tuesday (May 9).

 

By comparison, Brazil had already promised 86 percent of its 50,085-million-tonne soy crop to world markets at this time in market year 2004/05.

 

The total export-registration estimate for Apr 30 comes out to 14.04 million tonnes, compared with 11.4 million tonnes in its previous report dated Apr 14 and 10 million tonnes last month. In late April, market year 2005/06, Brazil registered 10.8 million tonnes of soybeans for export.

 

Tuesday's numbers continued to show a significant drop in soybean registrations from the 16.3 million tonnes seen at the same point in the 2004/05 market year, when high Chinese soybean demand and a favourable exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar contributed to the soy export market.

 

Abiove slightly raised its market-year 2006/07 soybean export forecast to 25.2 million tonnes from 24.9 million tonnes on Apr 14. By comparison, Abiove said that roughly 22.3 million tonnes should be exported in market-year 2005/06 out of the soy crop Brazil harvested from January to May 2005.

 

Meanwhile, soymeal registrations for market year 2006/07 continue to rise as the soy harvest draws to a close. Roughly 4.8 million tonnes of soymeal has been registered for export, compared with 4 million two weeks ago. In the 2005/06 period, 5.5 million tonnes of soymeal were registered for exports at this time, however.

 

The trend has been for the Brazilian soy market to export less soybean derivatives as high taxes, logistical problems and a strong local currency have caused Brazilian soymeal to lose market share to Argentina. In market year 2004/05, for instance, Brazil soymeal registrations totaled 7.3 million tonnes at this time.

 

As a result, Abiove lowered its market-year 2006/07 soymeal export total by 200,000 tonnes to 13.2 million tonnes, compared with the 13.9 million tonnes Abiove expects will be exported in the 2005/06 market year.

 

Soyoil export registrations to Apr 30 rose to 867,000 tonnes compared with 697,000 tonnes in its previous report, Abiove reported. Soyoil export estimates have pulled back again from the market year 2005/06 registrations of 960,000 tonnes.

 

Export estimates for soyoil for market-year 2006/07 dropped to 2.3 million tonnes from the 2.4 million tonnes forecast Apr 14. The number is also lower than the 2.6 million tonnes expected to end market year 2005/06.

 

Brazil's soy crush estimate for market-year 2006/07 dropped roughly 400,000 tonnes to 28.9 million tonnes due to growing concern of a smaller soy harvest. Market-year 2005/06 soy crush is put at 29.7 million tonnes, up from the 28.9 million crushed in 2004/05 and 27.8 million in 2003/04.

 

Brazil is the world's second largest soybean producer after the US.