May 9, 2007

 

US crop progress wrap: Corn seedings pick up

 

 

US farmers continue to seed the 2007 corn crop at a below-average pace, the US Department of Agriculture reported Monday (May 7) afternoon. But the seeding progress advanced by 30 percentage points from the previous week, coming in near the high end of analysts' estimates.

 

Soybean plantings advanced by 7 percentage points, while winter wheat crop conditions edged higher in the week ended Sunday, reflecting a little bit of modest recovery from the Easter freeze.

 

The USDA reported that planting of the spring wheat crop was above the level in 2006 and above the average for this date.

 

 

Corn

 

The USDA reported Monday that 53 percent of the US corn crop was planted compared with 23 percent last week, 67 percent last year and the five-year average of 63 percent. Industry analysts anticipated plantings in the 40 percent to 55 percent range.

 

The report showed you cannot underestimate the ability the farmer to get the crop in the ground, as the jump in seedings may be a record for the amount acreage seeding but not from a percentage basis, said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst with Prudential Financial in Chicago.

 

The western Midwest is an area of concern amid wet conditions so far this spring, particularly with several days of warm and dry weather needed before soils will firm enough to support large machinery to seed the crop following heavy weekend rains. This delay could push planting dates beyond the optimal planting timeframe and adversely affect yield potential, Midwest Market Solution's Brian Hoops wrote in a market letter.

 

Farmers in the western belt could be out of the fields for while, but producers east of the Mississippi River should be able to plant at a good clip to keep the overall seeding pace from falling farther behind average, McCambridge added.

 

In key growing states, Iowa reported that 53 percent of the crop had been planted compared with 14 percent last week and the five-year average of 72 percent. Illinois reported 72 percent had been seeded, compared to 36 percent last year and the five-year average of 73 percent.

 

Fourteen percent of the crop was reported emerged, up from 4 percent last week but below the five-year average of 20 percent.

 

One area of concern could be crusting reported in the western corn-belt, and that could affect future emergence, said McCambridge.

 

 

Soybean

 

The USDA reported Monday that 10 percent of the US soybean crop was planted compared with 3 percent last week, 17 percent last year and the five-year average of 17 percent. Industry analysts anticipated plantings in the 6 percent to 10 percent range.

 

In key producing states, Iowa soy plantings stand at 4 percent complete, up from last week's zero percent, but well off the five-year average pace of 17 percent. In Illinois, seedings are 7 percent complete, up from 1 percent last week, while trailing the five-year average of 15 percent.

 

"The report may be a little supportive for soybeans from a standpoint that the data shows corn plantings remain the focus of producers, and it's telling us that we will get the corn seeded, reducing the chances of any big shift of corn acres to soybeans at this point, said Don Roose, president US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

 

 

Winter wheat

 

The USDA reported 57 percent of the US winter wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up 1 percentage point from last week. Analysts anticipated good-to-excellent crop rating increases in the range of 1 to 2 percentage points continuing its recovery from the Easter freeze.

 

In Kansas, the nation's largest hard red winter wheat-producing state, 37 percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, down from the 39 percent reported last week. In Oklahoma, 73 percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, versus 70 percent last week.

 

The drop in Kansas' good-to-excellent rating was a bit of a surprise, and may draw some concerns to support Kansas City wheat, McCambridge said. However, overall as a wheat class, winter wheat improved and may limit any support from the Kansas drop, he added.

 

In the soft red winter wheat-producing states, Illinois' soft red crop was rated 26 percent in good-to-excellent condition compared with last week's 25 percent; Arkansas' crop was rated 16 percent good-to-excellent versus 15 percent last week; Indiana's crop was rated 37 percent good-to-excellent, up from last week's 34 percent rating; and Missouri's crop was 9 percent in good-to-excellent condition compared with 5 percent last week.

 

Thirty-five percent of the winter wheat crop was headed compared with 52 percent a year ago and the five-year average of 43 percent.

 

 

Spring wheat

 

Sixty-eight percent of the US spring wheat crop has been planted as of May 6, the USDA reported. This is above the 55 percent planted last-year and the five-year average of 62 percent.

 

The report showed farmers did a good job of doubling plantings from the prior week, with North Dakota making "extremely good" progress, McCambridge said.

 

Spring wheat plantings in North Dakota are 60 percent complete, up from the previous week's 22 percent and the five-year average of 53 percent.

 

Twenty-one percent of the crop was reported emerged compared with 21 percent last year and five-year average of 27 percent.

 

Emergence is a little lower-than-average, with minor concerns for potential crusting possibly generating support for spring wheat futures, McCambridge added.