May 9, 2007

USDA projects record global corn trade

The World Agricultural Outlook Board by the US Department of Agriculture forecasts record world corn exports for 2006-2007 due to soaring demand despite its high prices.

The report said US corn exports for the October-September 2006-2007 trade year is seen at 56 million tonnes, nearly the same as the previous year while Argentina was down early due to small corn crop in the country in 2006. However, it is expected to pick up after harvest in March and April 2007.

Meanwhile, corn exports from South Africa are expected to decline in 2006-2007.

On the other hand, world coarse grain consumption is expected to be up 3 percent in 2006-07 which will exceed 1 billion tonnes for the first time. This is the fourth straight year of demand growth.

Increasing global consumption of coarse grains is expected to reduce with stocks dropping by 26 percent to 123 million tonnes in 2006-07, the lowest level in over 30 years.

World coarse grain production in 2006-07 is expected to decline less than 1 percent from the previous year. Foreign coarse grain production is seen to increase by 2 percent as South America's production jumps 22 percent and Sub-Saharan Africa's production increases 7 percent despite devastating drought in South Africa.

China is having another record coarse grain crop which is up by 3 percent over 2005-06. The rise offsets another poor crop in the EU-25 in 2006-07, which is down 4 percent from 2005-06, and a 51-percent drought-induced plummet in Australia.