May 8, 2009
Argentina '08-09 soy crop may reach just 33 million tonnes
Sources in Argentina's Agriculture Secretariat expect the 2008-09 soy crop to total a dismal 33 million tonnes, according to a report in local daily Clarin Thursday (May 7).
Officials responsible for managing the Secretariat's crop forecasts could not be reached for comment.
The forecast of 33 million tonnes is in line with private estimates. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange expects the crop to total 34 million tonnes. The USDA has forecast production of 39 million tonnes, but that is seen as exceedingly optimistic.
The Argentine government has not published its monthly crop report since March, when it pegged production at 37 million to 39 million tonnes. However the Secretariat revoked the report the same day, saying it contained technical errors.
Critics charge that the report was yanked due to its pessimistic outlook for production, which was hit hard by drought this season.
The government is often accused of manipulating data to downplay bad news and exaggerate positive indicators.
Despite a record area planted with soy this season, the forecast of 33 million tonnes marks a decrease of over 13 percent from last season. Early forecasts had pegged 2008-09 output at a record 50 million tonnes, which indicates that about a third of the crop was felled by drought.
