May 8, 2006
 
US to up feed grain use in 2005/06
 

 

For 2005/06, the US total feed grain use is projected at 296 million tonnes, up from 291 million tonnes the previous year, said the USDA through its Apr 28 Economic Research Service Report. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is forecast at a record 82 million tonnes, and exports are projected at 55 million tonnes, up from 51 million last year.

 

"However, the growth in utilisation will not exceed the growth in supply, and ending stocks are expected to increase," the USDA said.

 

Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in September-August 2005/06 is expected to be down 3.5 percent from the 170 million tonnes used in September-August 2004/05. The grain used per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU) in 2005/06 is 1.79 tonnes, compared with 2004/05's 1.89 tonnes. Corn is expected to represent 93 percent of feed and residual use in 2005/06, down nearly 1 percent from 2004/05, according to the department.

 

Corn production in 2005/06 was 11.1 billion bushels, down from the previous year's record crop of 11.8 billion bushels, but still the second largest crop. Even though yields were down from the record levels of last year, increased planted and harvested area helped keep production high.

 

Corn supplies are projected to be up, but utilisation is forecast up less, resulting in increased ending stocks. Forecast total corn utilisation is projected to rise 273 million bushels to a record 10.9 billion bushels. Utilisation is forecast up for FSI and exports but down for feed and residual. Ending corn stocks for 2005/06 are expected to increase to 2.3 billion bushels, their highest level since 1987/88, the USDA pointed out.

 

Corn FSI use in 2005/06 is expected to total 3.0 billion bushels, up from 2.7 billion in 2004/05. FSI use is expected to represent 27 percent of total corn use, up 2 percent from 2004/05 and 2003/04.

 

According to the USDA Prospective Plantings report dated Mar 31, growers intend to plant 78 million acres of corn, down 5 percent from 2005.

 

World coarse grain production is expected to drop 5 percent in 2005/06 compared with the previous year.

 

"Foreign coarse grain production is forecast down 4 percent as the EU-25 dropped 13 percent and the former Soviet Union (FSU-12) fell 12 percent, more than offsetting a record crop in China," the USDA stated.

 

Global coarse grain beginning stocks are up 28 percent compared with the previous year, following record 2004/05 production, and the increased 2005/06 beginning stocks offsets most of the production decline, leaving 2005/06 global supplies down only slightly year-to-year.

 

"World coarse grain consumption is expected to decline slightly in 2005/06 due to the smaller production and outbreaks of animal diseases, especially bird flu," the USDA said. "Even though global consumption is expected to decline slightly, it will be near record levels, trimming world ending stocks an expected 10 million tonnes to 168 million, the third lowest in the last 20 years."

 

US corn exports for the October-September 2004/05 trade year are forecast at 50.5 million tonnes, up 12 percent from the previous year, the USDA said. Competition from Argentina is down due to a smaller corn crop. Moreover, corn exports from China, Brazil, and South Africa are expected to decline.

 

"However, large foreign supplies of competitively priced wheat for feeding are displacing US corn. Also bird flu is expected to slightly reduce world corn trade in 2005/06," the department added.

 

For the full USDA report, click here.