May 7, 2012

 

Global cotton trade likely up 13% on Chinese demands

 

 

Due to record Chinese imports, global cotton trade is expected to jump 13% to 8.6 million tonnes this year, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

 

China will account for 52% of global imports this season (August-July). Imports by the rest of the world are likely to fall by 18% to 4.2 million tonnes, it said.

 

It also noted that "the surge in Chinese imports has reduced the amount of cotton available in the rest of the world this season."

 

The US cotton exports are dropping by 21% to 2.5 million tonnes due to reduced supplies, but shipments from India, Brazil and Australia could reach record levels this year, it said.

 

As a result, while stocks in China are expected to more than double to five million tonnes in 2011-12, stocks in the rest of the world will increase at a more moderate rate of 14% to 8.1 million tonnes, it added.

 

Projecting fall in global cotton production in 2012-13, ICAC said it could decline 7% to 25.2 million tonnes due to a likely output dip in China, India, Pakistan, Brazil and Turkey.

 

"Cotton plantings for 2012-13 are now progressing in the northern hemisphere. Based on average yields, world production could decline by 7% to 25.2 million tonnes," it said.

 

Total global cotton output could fall as world cotton area is expected to decrease by 7% to 33.6 million hectares in response to lower prices, improving attractiveness of grains and soy, and rising agricultural production costs, it said. The cotton season runs from August-July.

 

According to ICAC, China is expected to produce a crop of 6.4 million tonnes in 2012-13, 13% lower than in 2011-12. Production is also expected to decline in India, Pakistan, Brazil and Turkey.

 

However, cotton output in the US could increase by 11% to 3.8 million tonnes despite reduced plantings, assuming improved weather, it said.

 

With regard to global cotton consumption, ICAC said, "After two seasons of decline, global cotton mill use is projected to increase by 4% to 24.1 million tonnes in 2012-13, driven by improving economic growth and lower cotton prices."

 

With global production exceeding global consumption again, global stocks are expected to continue increasing by 9% to 14.3 million tonnes, up by 59% of world mill use, it said.

 

On cotton prices in 2012-13, ICAC said the projected accumulation of cotton stocks will weigh on international cotton prices in next year, but the extent of this downward pressure will depend in large part on how the Chinese national reserve is handled.